Now I have been not writing about the Kristians Pelss situation for a very good reason since this whole fiasco started. Now I am just a low level Blogger that is throwing my condolences and prayers out to the Pelss family. Now that the Oiler's and others have confirmed that indeed his body was found deceased.

What I can say is I started following Kristians the moment he was drafted by the Edmonton Oilers. His whole game seemed to improve from that moment on. During the Edmonton Oil King run to the memorial cup his play was gritty and hard nosed he put up several important goals during that run.

After the Mem. cup run the Oilers saw fit to sign him to a 3 year entry level contract. (Not bad for a seventh round pick.) and he seemed to have won over the Coaching staffs of both the Stockton thunder and the Oak City Barons.  It is my belief that he would have had a cup of coffee with the Oilers this year as a call up.

All to often talents like this are cut short far to soon as in Kristians situation. I want everyone to remember him as a Kid who was bucking the odds in his pro hockey career ad gave me some hope that anyone can buck the Odds and make it.

I thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts today on a view from the bottom and have a great day.

If there's one thing that I hope that he can do as a GM is restore the bottom of the roster to how it was constructed when he was the coach.  Is it a personnel problem?  Is it a coaching problem?  I think the answer lies somewhere in between. 

I used http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com to gather the Shots for data for how the Oilers forwards do.  Quick description per hockeyanalysis on Shots For % – SF% = Shots For / (Shots For + Shots Against).  I ran the data for SF% and Corsi For% and the data was fairly similar.  In a couple of MacT's pressers he talked about out shooting the opposition, so for whatever reason I chose SF%.  I've been looking at this data since before the trade deadline, trying to wonder if there's been any progress.

Below is a look at the Edmonton Oiler players that have played more than 300 minutes and their SF% as well as their ranking from worst to best from each season between 2008-09 & 2012-13.  Typically on any given season you have roughly 420 forwards that play 200+ minutes a season, which is roughly 14 forwards per team.  You would think an average team should have roughly 7 forwards at .5+ SF%.  The line's are arguable, but I've used a method of TOI and games played as my reasoning for which players were on which lines.

2008-09

Notes:

• At the deadline the Oilers traded Eric Cole for Patrick O’Sullivan.
• At the end of the season the Oilers flushed Kyle Brodziak for magic beans.
• Zack Stortini also played 200+ minutes with a SH% of .397 which was 9^th worst out of qualifying players.
• Seven of the bottom 9 were in the bottom 25% for generating shots.  For reference you should not have more than 3.

2009-10

Notes:

• Players that qualified played less minutes than the 12 players mentioned above are; Ryan Jones SF% of .449 (46), Marc Pouliott .456 (57), Mike Comrie .493 (196) and Ales Hemsky, who was injured after 22 games was good for .496 (205).
• This was the start of the rebuild.
• Future Oiler Colin Fraser was 2^nd overall in SF% with .611.
• Look at where a 19-year-old Sam Gagner rated in SF% then compare to this past season.
• After the season finished the Oilers flushed O’Sullivan, Nilsson, Potulny, Moreau & Pisani.
• 6 of the bottom nine were in the bottom 25% in generating shots.

2010-11

Notes:

• Players who qualified but did not play enough minutes were; Ryan O’Mara .414 (12), Zac Stortini .443 (36) & JF Jacques .446 (39)
• Dustin Penner who played the majority of his time was dealt to LA Kings finished with a SF% of .474.
• The Oilers graduated a cluster of rookies; Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi & Omark and did relatively well.
• Colin Fraser went from 2^nd best SF% to 35^th worst in one season.  The role he played (4^th line) was similar to the role he played with the Blackhawks.  His TOI / G was only 40 seconds more than the season before in which he played for the Cup winning Blackhawks.
• Patrick O'Sullivan finished 13th worst for the Minnesota Wild.
• 5 of the 9 bottom were the worst 25% in generating shots.

2011-12

Notes:

• Players who qualified but did not play enough minutes were; Teemu Hartikainen, .448 (45) & Ben Eager .442 (36)
• Every player with the exception of Sam Gagner (who was essentially the same) had a better SF% with Tom Renney in his second season.
• Magnus Paajarvi just had horrible puck-luck that season.  His SF% was excellent, and his shooting % was 2.5.  He’s a really underrated player on this team.  I think it was one of Renney’s failures as a coach to move this guy around to where he would have success.
• Renney relied heavily on Horcoff & Smyth to shutdown the opposition; they played 19+ minutes per game and were often put in the shutdown role.
• The forward group was abnormally healthy that year (yes Hall & RNH missed 20 games), but every single forward in the top 9 played 60+ games.
• 3 of the bottom 9 were amongst the 25% worst at generating shots.

2011-12

Notes:

• Players who qualified but did not play enough minutes were; Mike Brown .369 (1), Jerred Smithson (34)
• They had ELEVEN of the worse 63 NHL forwards last year.  I’m not sure how that is possible and I’m not sure how that is possible and the team doesn’t finish dead-last.
• Every single player in the bottom nine regressed under Krueger and for players like PRV, Gagner, Hemsky, Petrell and Belanger the regression was significantly, epically worse than the previous season.
• The bottom nine performed worse than any year since 2009/10 (year the rebuild began).
• A bottom nine that includes a 23 year-old Gagner, Horcoff, Hemsky, Smyth, Yakupov, Paajarvi & Belanger.  All who have been capable NHL players, are worse than; a 19-year-old Gagner , Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, Gilbert Brule, aging Ethan Moreau, aging Fernando Pisani,  Ryan Potulny, Zack Stortini & JF Jacques.
• Krueger was getting praise for the advanced stats progression of RNH, Eberle and Hall.  But I’m likely to believe that the trio was the exception and not the rule.
• Gagner has regressed every year since 09/10.  But this year was dramatic.  Every year Gagner has been able to hold his own.
• The system that Krueger employed has been talked about.  I am glad that the Oilers decided to go in a different direction.
• Every year the Oilers had one player in the bottom 9 that had a SF% of .5.
• 9 of the bottom 9 (and also an additional 2) were amongst the worst at generating shots.

The only constant from the firing of MacTavish, Quinn, Renney &  Krueger was Buchburger.  If there is one thing that I'd like Eakins to do is bring in Derek King to run the forward units and move Bucky to the scouting group.

I'm hopefully Eakins can bring some stability to our team and that the forward group especially the bottom nine can start to hold their own.   Best of Luck to Krueger and MacT, I'm rooting for ya.  

I am back. Now not to get  all mushy and all since March 9th of 2013 I have been sort of busy.  I am not asking for sympathy but I have had two battles with leukaemia, I was released from hospital last Friday. Since that time I didn't keep up with my teams as much as I would have liked.

What did I miss since I got busy?

-The Oilers finished out of the play-offs, no surprise there I believe I called them to finish 10-12. what did they finish in the west? 12 in the west and finished ahead of that dreaded Calgary Flames.

-The Oilers Had a change in their scoring leader with Taylor Hall getting 50 points in 45 games. Gagner showed that as a number 2 center he is consistent with 38 points in 48 games. Rnh had an off year getting 24 points in 40 games and ended up getting his shoulders worked on Ala Hall the year before. All the boys and girls counting on Eberles shooting percentage to drop got  their wish, He finished 3rd on the Oilers with 37points and only a 12% shooting percentage.

-I said in a blog in what october when MacT was hired that he was getting set up as the next Oilers G.M. While I take no pleasure in saying this the Edmonton Oilers then had the gonads  to let Steve Tambellinni go as G.M. and replace him with Mr MacTavish. I call him Mr as since being hired he has in my books brought in a level of accountability andexcitement to the Oilers front office.

-Last week MacT announced that the Oilers were looking to trade two long time vets in Horcoff and Hemsky. According to reports Horcs sold his house in Edmonton. All quiet on the Hemsky front.  It is my opinion that they may be packaged together to a team like Phoenix for draft picks and prospects.

-Saturday Mactavish announced that he had let King Ralph go as coach of the Oilers. In doing so he made the statement that they were not together on the vision of the team moving forward, and that it was his job to make that call. Again Gonads to make that call. 

-The NHL draft is only 3 weeks away On June 30th (later than usual) MacT has a huge job to find a new coach, make some trades (Hemsky and Horcoff )and maybe spread some more magic to make the fans more excited about the Oilers (and what they are going to do at the Draft). I wouldn't be surprised to see that the Oilers brought in an experienced coach(I may be wrong but I don't see Eakins as the answer here, Sutter maybe since we already have several Sutters working for the Oilers.)

-Well that is all for my first blog in almost 3 months, I would also like to thank everyone for their support the last few months. I also want to thank you for taking the time to read A view from the bottom and have a great night.

But I say NO, NO, NO…..

Look, trading down in the draft is a bad idea at the best of times, never mind in a draft like this one which is projected to be the deepest in a couple of decades, give or take a couple of years in either direction.  Trading down in the draft gets you Marc Pouliot when you could've had Zach Parise (oh yeah, the Oilers did that).  I could give other examples, but that's the most glaring one. 

Now I get the appeal of Curtis Lazar.  He's 6'0" and 198 lbs….not exactly earth shattering measurements by NHL standards but at least average.  He's broken out in junior this season  with 38 goals and 61 points this year – while going +25 to boot – not the numbers of a top flight offensive prospect  (if you don't believe me take a look at SIdney Crosby's numbers while in junior), who usually set their leagues on fire with crazy totals like 150 pts in 70 games or something like that.  Lazar probably projects as a good 3rd line C in the NHL who (allegedly) can chip in some secondary offense.  This is a need in the organization, and that's probably why MacT loves him – plus playing for the Oil Kings he has easy access to watching him.  

But it's a bad idea to trade down to draft him because there are better options to be had. 

If the Oilers do the smart thing and keep their #7 pick, here's who is projected to be drafted by the Oilers: 

1.  Sean Monahan

Monahan has some size at 6'2" 193 lbs, making him an average-sized NHLer and above-average sized Oiler.  He's maintained pretty consistent numbers in junior – a guy who can both score and playmake.  2 out of 3 seasons in junior he's maintained more than a 1.0 PPG pace and more than 30 goals, good numbers for junior but not top-flight prospect numbers. 

The Oilers could use more size in their top 6, and if Monahan is competent at faceoffs, he would make Sam Gagner expendable, or at least moved over to the wing (assuming Krueger is willing to take a risk and try him on his off-shooting directional wing).  The best part for him is the pressure is off because neither of his wingers would be rookies, so someone else would do the heavy lifting and he can develop outside the limelight (to an extent, this is Edmonton after all).  Also, unlike the other 2 forwards in this list, he wouldn't have to get used to North American hockey.  

Drafting Monahan would give the Oilers some options for the summer that they have not enjoyed in the past.  However, Monahan is projected to go 6th to the Flames so he likely won't be available at 7.  But, the Steve Staios trade showed us that we should never underestimate Jay Feaster's stupidity, which will be the X factor at the draft. 

2.  Valeri Nichushkin

Nichushkin was previously projected as too high a risk to pick at 7, but word is now that Nichushkin is being let out of his KHL contract, so now he is much more attractive to the NHL.  The 6 teams ahead of the Oilers all have better players to choose from, so although he could go earlier than 7 I wouldn't count on it.  Nichushkin is one of the biggest players available to the Oilers at 6'4" and 196 lbs.  He's also had the advantage of playing with men in the KHL for a year, and he could play the 2nd line LW on the Oilers without them having the shuffle players out of the organization.  

Currently the Oilers LW depth chart is as follows: 

Hall-Pajaarvi-?????-Petrell/Smyth/????

As you can see, there's a huge drop in talent after Taylor Hall.  But with Nichuskin in the picture, now it looks much better: 

Hall-Nichuskin-Pajaarvi-Petrell/Smyth/????

That's a good infusion of talent, and would bring us almost as much talent on LW as we have right now on RW in terms of the 1st 3 lines. 

However, not every European can translate their game to the NHL.  Case in point:  Roman Cervenka.  The Flames picked him up on the cheap last season from the Czech League, and he spent the year either a) injured or b) ineffective.  Can Nichushkin handle the physical demands of the NHL?  We can't say for sure, but Nail Yakupov seemed to do fine, and another plus for Nichushkin is he would probably appreciate having another Russian on the team in Yakupov, and vice versa.  Yak is probably a rock star in Russia, and Nichushkin being over here might generate some good chemistry.  That could be a good 1-2 punch on the 2nd line.  

Pajaarvi had his breakout at 2nd line LW this year, but if we can upgrade the position at the draft then why wouldn't we do it?  

3.  Elias Lindholm

Lindholm is not quite as big as Nichushkin, but at 6'0" and 183 lbs he's at least NHL average – even if the weight is a question mark that will change overtime with the right fitness routine, which the Oilers would make sure of as much as they could.  

Lindholm has more experience than Nichushkin playing with men, having spent the past 2 seasons in the SEL.  Again, the European-NHL conversion is a question mark but a reasonable risk if you believe the projections.  

Lindholm's biggest asset to the Oilers, IMO, is his versatility.  He's in his element playing center or left wing – which means although it wouldn't mean a trade for Sam Gagner it would mean he now has someone who will push him at the position, so we can rotate each player into center or LW, depending on performance. 

4.  Darnell Nurse

Nurse is a good prospect as a d-man, but it's not even worth discussing him much as the Oilers already have an abundance of defensive prospects to deal with now so adding one more to the pile only complicates things.  Not to mention d-men are harder to predict development wise than forwards in the draft.  You need another reason?  2 words:  Alex Plante – picked in this same spot in his draft year and hasn't worked out.  But, you can never rule out the Oilers picking him….still a better option than trading down. 

Bottom line….

I've already listed 4 reasons the Oilers shouldn't be trading down, but I wouldn't be completely opposed to it IF we get a good warm body back in a trade.  But that would only serve as salve in the wound.  The fact that no other team is rumored to be moving down should say something.  Again, this is the deepest draft in many years and Zach Parise vs. Marc Pouliot shows that the Oilers (and in fact most NHL clubs) haven't benefited from moving down in the draft.  Curtis Lazar is likely a good 3rd line C, but why get a 3rd line C when you can get a 2nd line LW or C, especially when the latter will be ready for the NHL sooner than the former?  3rd line C are a dime a dozen, and we can easily pluck one off the FA market for cheap or get one in a trade without having to give up a lot.

Anton Belov

MacT made a good calculated risk in his first move as GM, signing Anton Belov to a cheap, short term contract to help shore up a hole in the Oilers lineup:  young d-men who are NHL ready.  He's got size, scoring ability, and defensive acumen, the whole package.  The only question is if his game translates to the NHL from the KHL – whether he's Roman Cervenka or Roman Hamrlik, so to speak.  

It's a good move that will push the other defensive prospects trying to earn spots with the Oilers this year.  I would call him Mark Fistric with scoring ability and better skating and defensive capabilities.  On paper, this is a good move.  In reality, we'll see when the games are played.   

Especially interesting is the comments made by Valeri Nichushkin. If you havent heard yet, he said (in more words, and confusingly translated) that he is intending on playing in the NHL next year. He and his team have discussed this, and Dynamo is willing to drop his contract. 

Before this statement, the Oilers' 7th overall pick was sitting just outside of the cream of the crop, in my opinion (Drouin, Barkov, McKinnon, Jones, Monahan, Lindholm). The fear, of course, was the lengthy contract Nichushkin had signed would keep him in Russia for some time. 

The interest in Monahan is huge in E-Town… a centre with skill as well as size… but it was likely the rival Calgary Flames would snag him with their own pick, 6th overall. 

With Nichushkin's statement in the open, the Oilers have almost moved up in the draft, in a sense, now having a pick that could impact their team quickly and efficiently. Imagine the possibilities!!! Having Monahan at centre, as we have discussed at much more length than needed at the time. Trading down, now with a pick that has some serious value, and can bring in a larger return, or picking up the 6'4" Russian to fill the 2nd line LW position with authority, likely on a line with fellow countryman Nail Yakupov. I just watched some footage of this guy, and he literally drags the d-men hooked on with their sticks and gloves as he skates in to score. He is a tough character indeed, and would be comfortable, I am sure, with Yakupov on the other wing.

What say you guys? Which of those options would you like to see? Or, maybe, are you hoping for Lindholm? 

It is nice to be back, I promise I wont run away again. At least until the next time.

http://www.oilogosphere.com/?site=aHR0cDovL3d3dy42MzBjaGVkLmNvbS9DaGFubmVscy9SZWcvT2lsZXJzSGVhZGxpbmVzL1N0b3J5LmFzcHg/SUQ9MTk2NzAzNw==

This announcement surprises no one.  Just in case you've forgotten, Sutton suffered what at the time was a season-ending (and, as it turns out, career ending) injury 52 games into the 2011-2012 season.  It was so bad they had to go to the last resort (surgery) and Sutton never played again.  Why not take advantage of free medical help in rehabbing a major injury before making it official?  He would've been a fool not to. 

Sutton can look back and marvel at the career he's had.  Lots of guys would kill to be in his shoes and be so lucky.  In 1998, Sutton was just a wide-eyed youngster about to graduate from college when the San Jose Sharks signed him as a college free agent, where as is the usual case he bounced around between the NHL and AHL.  When the Minnesota Wild entered the NHL in 2000, he was selected by them in the expansion draft.  From there, he stayed in the NHL for good, bouncing around as a journeyman with various teams, using his massive 6'6" 245 lb frame to deliver a physical, yet defensively responsible game that also involved both fighting and secondary offense at times.  

He arrived in Edmonton as a summer trade in 2011-2012, in exchange for the oft-injured, defensively suspect, fallen from grace journeyman d-man Kurtis Foster.  At the time, the Oilers were lacking in both balance and physicality in their offense, and getting rid of Foster while bringing in Sutton helped to solve both those problems – of course the D was (and still is) a work in progress, but Sutton helped out big time.  If it weren't for his career ending injury he probably would've played with the Oilers last season as well.  

He wasn't able to end his career on his own terms, but he's got nothing to be ashamed about.  He may not have been Nik Lidstrom, but he knew his role and performed it well.  Sutton finishes his career with 676 games under his belt, while scoring 38 goals and 150 points, and a great indication of his calling card is he finishes with 1,185 penalty minutes. 

He can also take consolation that at the age of 38 his career is pretty much done anyway – this is right around the time most NHLer's bodies break down.  Hey, could've been like Paul Comrie and have your career end before it barely starts.  Forced to retire from the NHL at 38 is a lot easier of a pill to swallow than having to retire at 24 with a whopping 15 games under your belt.  

You were a good soldier Andy, and I now make a toast to you with my invisible pint of beer (I don't drink at 12pm, what am I an animal?  ).  

Sutton has taken on the role of inventor (probably for something to do while recouperating from injury), and has multiple patents on some kind of body armor or something.  

Anyway, good luck to you in NHL retirement, Andy.  Many NHLers would love to have your career.   

The arena deal is finally done.  It's moving forward, and shovels will go into the ground. 

The Oilers are staying put, Katz gets his new barn, and the city will likely look back on today as going down in history, starting the trigger that revitalizes the inner city (no matter how much dumbasses like Peter Adler are in denial it needs to be done). 

This means the 2 biggest decisions in Edmonton's history up to this point (well at least in the top 10 anyway – probably the decision to amalgamate with the town of Strathcona in 1912 was the biggest) are done and in the books, those 2 deals being the arena deal and the closure of the City Center Airport. 

The closure of the CCA makes the Edmonton Airport Authority's books look better once the airport is officially closed (less red ink), and gives the city a huge chunk of cash for now and in the future. 

The arena deal doesn't give the city any upfront cash per se, but it does give a catalyst to future cash, and some long overdue attention to the inner city, making Edmonton's downtown look that much better and putting the recent slow downtown growth momentum on steroids. 

The arena deal will benefit the city with a big property tax cash infusion from businesses, as well as increase office space downtown which will only exacerbate the effect.  Construction jobs are created right away. 

As for the deal itself?  Well, it's far from perfect.  The city will make up the $45 million shortfall by increasing the CRL for $30 million, while the Katz Group reneged on their previous statements and kicked in another $15 million (I expected this to happen, but thought it would be more).  I knew Katz would do this, I just thought it would be more.  Good on him, though, it helps to repair his image and save a little face, scoring brownie points with our citizens and getting the public a little more on his side. 

The city, in order to make sure the new CRL rate won't actually be so high as to discourage development around the arena, will widen the area it collects the tax from. 

The other major move is they adopted councillor Amarjeet Sohi's motion to use CRL money instead of borrowing against the surplus MSI money from the province that was announced about a month ago back or so for the $45 million to partially make up for the shortfall from the province not chipping in. 

I would bet this was because of protest from Sohi's ward, and the city will likely borrow against it and put that money towards pothole removal or more conventional city services as his electorate wanted.  A feather in his cap, for sure, but pretty inconsequential to the deal itself.  It also allows city council to score brownie points with the anti-arena crowd, ignorant and clueless as they are.   

The best you can say about this deal is it proves that Mandel and his councillors are skilled mediators.  It's not a deal that's 100% favourable to the city but it's not 100% favourable to Katz either.  Both sides gained something and both sides bit the bullet as well. 

Now we can move forward and stop at long last talking about this, and none of the incumbents put this fall's election in jeopardy. 

Katz's comments on the deal can be heard from the Oilers' website here:  http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=43070

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Edmonton+woman+pays+arena+poll/8384972/story.html

Someone actually spent $5,000 of their own money to hire a market research firm to conduct an opinion poll, of a whopping 300 people. 

Wait, it gets better. 

The types of questions asked in the survey were far from unbiased. 

The one that takes the cake for me was this one: 

"Agreement that taxpayers should take on a $500 million debt to build a new downtown arena."  

Aren't survey questions supposed to be unbiased in nature?  Might as well poll people in Edmonton asking them if we should revive Hitler from the dead and make him our mayor for life, because the answer would be about the same. 

And that's not even getting into the fact that 300 people is hardly representative of the 1 million plus people that live in Edmonton and surrounding areas, nor that this question does not actually represent the true funding agreement for the arena. 

A controversial topic in Edmonton always seems to bring the crazies and the uninformed out of the woodwork. 

Take the issue of closing the City Center Airport, for example.  The folks in favour of keeping it open brought out all kinds of issues, like "Medivac service will be negatively affected" "There's too much gasoline in the soil for this to work as a residential complex" "Where will all the aviation businesses go and what happens to all the jobs these businesses provide?" "If we revived service at the CCA, it would make money again" 

Fair enough, these issues had SOME merit – except for the last one, which is a blatant lie as the growth of the International airport has been huge since consolidation of services began in 1995.  But all of these issues have reasonable, inexpensive solutions to them.   

In the end, no one provided a compelling enough argument why the city should continue to operate an old and antiquated, crumbling, seldom used, money losing airport  when they could sell the land to a property developer for $900 million and then bring in an estimated $400 million in property taxes to city coffers thereafter per decade. 

The best part was some of the threats the city received before deciding to close it in stages.  Some mayors in northern places like Peace River and Grande Prairie threatened to bypass Edmonton for air travel and land in Calgary instead. 

OK, let's say the provincial government holds a conference in Edmonton, and invites municipal leaders from all over the province to it.  Really?  You're going to waste your own taxpayers' money and your own time by flying to Calgary 1st, then fly the International, paying more for your ticket and twice the airport improvement fees, not to mention taking more time waiting in Calgary's airport and increasing flight times unneccesarily just because we won't let you land at the airport you want to?  Not likely.  You'd be kicked out of office in a heartbeat.  Some of the aviation business owners at the CCA also threatened to close down rather than move their operations to another small airport around Edmonton (there are 4 such airports around Edmonton these businesses could relocate to).  Really?  A small company that employs maybe 200 people has leverage to hold an entire city of 1 million people hostage?  Dream on.  City council is calling their bluff, and rightly so.  Why would you give up your entire livelihood just because you can't locate your business EXACTLY where you want to?  Doesn't make sense. 

What I found really interesting is that NONE of the airport supporters were stepping forward to buy the airport from the Edmonton Airports Authority, or even chip in the $30 million required just to repair the airport to keep it on the life support it's on now.  Everyone who wasn't the city of Edmonton was very vocal about wanting to keep the place open but wanted someone else to pay for it….how convenient.  Unfortunately for them, the airport is located in the City of Edmonton, and so they'll have to live with whatever decision we make.  And you know what?  If Danielle Smith has a slightly more expensive cab ride to the legislature from the International, I honestly don't care.  The city made the best decision in this case. 

The arena deal has the same kind of (in this case) vocal detractors.  Except unlike the CCA debate, the folks on the wrong side of this one don't even have legitimate arguments to be made. 

First of all, as Ms. Jalkanen's survey insinuates, the city of Edmonton is not taking on $500 million of debt to pay for this project.  Katz is paying for some, Oiler fans and concert goers are paying for others, and the businesses that will benefit from the arena will pay slightly higher taxes temporarily until the arena's mortgage is paid off, then the CRL will be removed and normal property tax rates will apply once again.  All of the surrounding communities combined will kick in another $25 million, and they're Oiler fans and concert goers too so if they're going to use the facility they should pay for it too, that's only fair.  Then there's the $45 million the city is borrowing against additional MSI funding they received from the province they would've received regardless of whether the arena goes ahead or not.  So that's not a leap of faith, it's money we already have.     

In fact, the city went to great lengths to ensure no property tax increases will happen as a result of the arena project.

Fact is, worst case scenario the only money the city will have to potentially borrow to pay for this is they agreed to pay $25 million for a Winter Garden, which is a city facility anyway and thus their responsibility to pay for (except cost overruns which are Katz's responsibility), and another $7 million for the LRT station that's going there.  But, in the past the city has always spent their share of the federal government's allocation of the gas tax to them on LRT expansion, so really that's the feds chipping in for that.  Plus there's $7 million for a community skating rink that the city again would own so yes it should pay for it. 

But let's say that doesn't happen…that means the city would have to borrow (again worst case scenario) $39 million.  Now I'm no math whiz, but that's far from the $500 million that  Jalkanen insinuates in her BS biased joke of a public opinion poll.  

Then, if you check the comments section of that article, 1 of 2 real crazies that always comment on articles in the Journal about the arena are Mimi Williams, a complete and total nutjob who's actually going to be running as a Ward 7 city councillor in the next municipal election. 

If you live in this ward of the city, I'm telling you, stay away from this woman.  She distorts the truth or just spews lies in the comments section of the article, and can't be trusted.  One of her comments, for example, is that "Vancouver, Ottawa, Toronto, and Montreal built their arenas with 100% private funds so why can't we?"  Well, 1st of all, Toronto is 6 times the size of Edmonton, and are the #1 revenue generating team in the NHL, so of course in that case you can afford to build your own arena privately.  Ottawa got a small grant from the feds as well as money from the province of Ontario to build a road to the arena since in the "What were they thinking?" files, Ottawa stupidly built their arena in an out of the way location, and it almost bankrupted their previous owner, and it did bankrupt the owners of the arena.  So to say Ottawa built their arena 100% privately is false, and requires a little context.  Vancouver and Montreal built their arenas in 1995 and 1996 respectively, before the age of the internet, and there is no information whatsoever on their arena deals online, so what exactly is she basing this on?  She can't say they were built with 100% private money because neither she nor anyone else knows the specifics of the deals. 

She also claims Katz doesn't live in Edmonton, which again is a distortion of the truth as he may not live in Edmonton full time but he does have a residence here he owns which is actually very visible from both the western edge of downtown and the western edge of the river valley.  A simple Google Image search gives you a picture. 

And what's crazy about this whole thing is the city has posted the funding agreement on their website, they're being completely transparent and not hiding it in any way.  All it takes to get educated is a simple Google search, and there it is. 

And of course the #1 Edmonton verbial diarrhea flinger Peter Adler has to chime in as well.  He once claimed that downtown didn't need to be revitalized, and if he'd set foot in the inner city lately he's know that was a lie.  He also claims that there are studies sports complexes don't revitalize parts of your city….yet he conveniently ignores the success stores in LA, San Diego, and Columbus to name just a few off the top of my head.

And, just like no one who wanted to keep the CCA open was willing to pony up the dough required to either upgrade or operate the airport, neither is anyone on the anti-arena side coming up with alternatives for revitalizing the inner city.  So easy to condemn, so hard to create….

This is why, to me, the anti-arena side has lost all credibility, just like the pro-CCA side did before council's decision on the airport.  Neither party is willing to see the facts in front of them – one project is worth killing, while the other is worth bringing to life, and the opposite didn't make any sense in either case. 

Mandel and his council have largely shown the ability to shake off the vocal and ignorant chirpers who spread lies and half-truths and do what's best for the city.  Let's hope he keeps that going on the arena project. 

Word has it that the remaining money has been found for the project.  We'll see what happens next. 

So, without any further ado, let's see what Staples had to say and I'll put my opinions out there: 

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Marincin+Rajala+among+Oklahoma+City/8369807/story.html

The bright lights

Martin Marincin

Marincin is a positive for the organization in so many ways.  He developed chemistry with Justin Schultz during the lockout when Schultz was playing there.  He's had good boxcars, and he's carried that over into the playoffs.  He's a +/- whiz, finishing the regular season +21 and the 1st round of the AHL playoffs +3.  He's only 21, so his window of opportunity is still wide open.  So far, so good for Marincin.  He has to be considered the Oilers' top defensive prospect at this point in time.  However, the main strike against him right now is inexperience.  He's basically just finished his first full season in pro hockey.  Before that, he bounced around the WHL, the Slovakian kids WHC team, and fit in a combined 7 games in 2 seasons for OKC, where he finished with a whopping 1 assist in those 7 games. 

Bottom line:  After getting a regular spot on the Barons, Marincin has done well for an AHL rookie.  He's shown both defensive acumen and offensive skills, and is probably a future top pairing d-man because of it.  Unfortunately the AHL doesn't have any stats on their website other than boxcars, which makes it hard to track the more intangible aspects of his game, like hits, blocked shots, etc.  Unless you're Todd Nelson, we probably don't have access to these stats, and Nelson isn't going to give them to me. 

What are his chances of making the Oilers next season?  Slim to none, it's too soon for Marincin.  If he can follow up the season he's having now with another stellar season offensively and defensively, plus continue his consistency in the AHL playoffs this year, then he'll probably get a cup of coffee with the Oilers before the 2013-2014 season is done.  Other than that, I'd say more seasoning is in order for Marincin.  Until he proves otherwise, his arrows are pointing up. 

Taylor Fedun

We all remember what Fedun is most famous for, he was on his way to earning a spot with the Oilers in 2011 before getting a crippling injury that knocked him out of playing hockey for the season.  But, he's long since recuperated so now we can talk about him.  Boxcars wise, he's Marincin-lite; in other words he has good boxcars but they're not as good as Marincin.  This is not necessarily a bad thing.  He's also on the positive side of the +/- ledger, and interestingly enough is doing better defensively in the playoffs than the regular season – he was +2 this year for the Barons but was +6 in the 1st round with Charlotte.  That's a good thing.  Bad things?  Fedun has only played 1 season of pro hockey, and he's 24 years old.  He has a shorter window of opportunity, but he is a right handed d-man which is something the Oilers need here.  Once developed, even if he only has a 5 year career in the NHL he still might be worth it because after Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry the Oilers have a huge dropoff in terms of depth on the right D side. 

Bottom Line:  Fedun is a wild card.  He's approaching the make or break point of his career and he could have a brief but shining career with the Oilers or he could be AHL depth, it all depends on how he goes from here.  His injury in 2012 will follow him around like a black cloud as well for the rest of his career, you never know how that will play out until you play the games. 

What are his chances of making the Oilers next season?  50-50.  Fedun almost made the team with no experience at all, and that's a big plus.  After a season in the AHL, he's had time to get used to the pro ranks.  Staples seems to think he's in the mix for the role of 7th d-man next season….personally, I hope not.  Fedun's talents would be wasted in that role, I'd prefer he stay on in OKC before doing that.  But, who knows?  He may grab the bottom pairing right handed spot, the Oilers are weak in that area and Ryan Whitney isn't taking it next year.  Never count this player out, but the most likely scenario is he goes back down to OKC for more seasoning. 

Toni Rajala

Rajala spent time in both Stockton and OKC last year due to Tambo's inability to manage the roster numbers.  Rajala is lending some legitimacy to the Oilers' scouting department since he's a 4th round dark horse that's come out of nowhere to become one of the Baron's top producing forwards.  Nice.  He's producing an eye-popping 5-6 scoring chances per game (separate article in the journal - http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/05/13/oilers-prospect-mark-arcobello-raisin-hell-from-the-slot-in-ahl-playoffs/  ), tied for tops amongst the Barons.  The main knock against Rajala is he's very small, only 5'10 and 163 lbs., and the Oilers' roster doesn't need to get smaller.  This is Linus Omark territory.  But, Rajala is working himself into the conversation, especially if MacT decides to go with a 3rd scoring line instead of a more traditional checking line this upcoming season.  His boxcars are awesome, though, he's produced 45 pts in 46 games for OKC, and a fantastic 38 pts in 29 games in Stockton.  He's also produced 9 pts in 7 playoff games so far in OKC, so the fact he can take his offense to the next level in the playoffs bodes well for him.  

Bottom line:  Rajala is setting the AHL on fire in the wrong organization.  But, decision time is not yet upon us.  He's only played 1 season in the North American pros and is signed for 1 more season with the organization.  If he can follow up this year with more of the same next year, look for Rajala to be great trade bait to a team lacking in offense, either next season or beyond if the Oilers use a sign and trade strategy.

What are his chances of making the Oilers next season?  Slim to none – and that goes for not just next season but every one after as well.  The fact he's a top 6 forward on a team already stacked with stellar talent on the top club – especially at right wing – means he isn't going anywhere next year, especially with only 1 AHL season under his belt.  The guy would need to get bigger before the Oilers would even think of playing him up here.  If Rajala can stay consistent, he'll make the NHL, just not with the Oilers.  If I had to guess what he was worth in a trade, I'd say a 2nd round pick for sure, maybe even a bottom 6 warm NHL body, bottom pairing d-man, or 1st round pick if MacT can pull it off; and you know what?  There's no shame in that.  Even at this point I'd say the Oilers have more than covered their draft bet on this player – 4th rounders who work themselves in the NHL conversation are few and far between, so even if we let him go for a 2nd round draft pick then Rajala has been a good pick, and good asset management for the organization.  He's too small for the Oilers, though.     

Anton Lander

Unlike most of the players listed, Lander has already had significant time with the Oilers, with mixed results.  Up to this point in the NHL Lander has done OK, not great but not bad.  In the AHL he's done better and can play a scoring role.  Again it would be great if I had stats on his hits and blocked shots but the AHL doesn't put them on their website.  If anyone knows where I can get them, that would be great.  He's also shown great chemistry with countrymen Paajarvi and Teemu Hartikainen.  That might be a line for the Oil in the future.  He's also only 22, so time is on his side at the moment.  He's not overly big but he's at least NHL average, which is more than you can say for some Oilers.  He's also shown a talent in the faceoff circle, even at the NHL level finishing over or close to the 50% mark.  He's done pretty good in the AHL at creating offense but has had trouble translating that to the NHL.  He'll have to work on that if he wants to make the Oilers. 

Bottom line:  Jury's still out on whether Lander is an NHLer or just an AHL regular.  He's young enough and the organization is high enough on him that he'll stick around, and you can bet we haven't seen the last go around of him in an Oilers' jersey. 

What are his chances of making the Oilers next season?  Never say never, you can't rule it out, but I just can't see a place for him on the Oilers if he doesn't dazzle with more offense.  Arrows are pointing to him making the Oilers in the next 2 seasons or so.  Put him back in the oven, he needs more seasoning and he's not done yet. 

Teemu Hartikainen

Hartikainen is slowly but surely making his way to the NHL.  He's one of the Oilers' first callup options if they need someone in the bottom 6.  At 6'1 and 209 lbs he's a big body sorely missing for the team.  He's also only 23 years old, and that's a good time to show some upward momentum.  Like Lander, he's had trouble translating his good boxcars from the AHL into the NHL.  He's also still a work in progress defensively as well, finishing on the minus side of the +/- ledger 2 out of 3 stints with the Oilers so far.  Another stellar draft pick by Stu, he came out of the 6th round in 2008.  Goal scoring and point production has declined all 3 times as well.  Hartikainen's contract is up, but he's shown enough he'll likely get re-signed, albeit with less rope and higher expectations. 

Bottom line:  Hartikainen is at a crossroads and has worked himself into the conversation with the Oilers, but he is in danger of regressing into a bubble player whose ceiling is as an AHL callup at best.  But, he could also be the big body the Oilers sorely need in their bottom 6.  If he regresses then his contract is likely his last.  Even if the Oilers trade him they could get a 2nd rounder at least for him, covering his draft bet. 

What are his chances of making the Oilers next year?  Hartikainen arguably has the best chance of anyone on this list to make the big club, but it all depends on training camp and how MacT sees him now.  If I had to set expectations for him I would say one of the last cuts of training camp and it's down for another season in the AHL. 

Mark Arcobello

Arcobello has been progressively improving since playing with OKC, both offensively and defensively.  He's tied for the lead in scoring chances with Rajala on the Barons, at between 5-6 per game for this season.  He's also off to a good start in the AHL playoffs with 9 pts in 7 games.  But, he shares a curse with Rajala in that he is a small player – 5'8" and 165 lbs.  He's got a long way to go in the size department if he ever hopes to make the Oilers, and it's unlikely it'll be in the top 6 like he is in OKC now.  The Oilers rewarded him for his work in the minors with a 1 game cup of coffee to fill in for the injured Horcoff.  He finished with no points and even in the +/-; not great but not bad.  We'll see what his top ceiling is.  

Bottom line:  I'd say Arcobello suffers the same fate as Rajala, only his AHL stats aren't quite as strong so there's less of a chance he makes the NHL.  He was a college free agent signing in 2011, so if he doesn't make it that's OK, if MacT doesn't re-sign him he can take a bow and look back at a respectable career, he's still made it further than a lot of guys do, and has made some decent coin in the AHL while doing it, and it didn't cost the Oilers a thing to find out if he was for real other than a roster spot, which in the AHL at least he's covered. 

What are the chances he makes the Oilers next year?  Zero.  It's too soon in his development for the Oilers to bring him on full time.  I would bet he gets re-signed to a 2-way, short term contract.  At 24, what's the harm?  Worse comes to worse, he doesn't get re-signed and can choose a different career or move on to another organization, no hard feelings.  Even in the minors, you have to at least consider re-signing your best players, even if they won't make it to the NHL.  He needs more time on the farm to know for sure if he's an NHLer or not, and considering his small size it might even be with a different organization.  

The fading stars

Colten Teubert

Teubert at one time was considered a replacement for Andy Sutton on the Oilers, but not anymore.  Teubert's offense increased by 1 pt, but that's not anything to write home about.  He's been passed by on the depth chart by a lot of different guys in OKC, and unlike 2012 he didn't get a cup of coffee in the NHL this year, and that's a bad omen.  He's barely hanging onto a roster spot in the AHL, and that's bad.  MacT likes these types of players, and at this point that's probably his only saving grace.  He'll be lucky to resume his career at all next year. 

Phillippe Cornet

Cornet worked himself into the NHL conversation with a 24 goal, 37 point season in 2012 with OKC, which was enough to garner him a 2 game cup of coffee with the Oilers, in which he earned 1 assist.  This season?  No callup, 15 goals and 30 pts on the season in the AHL, and even spent part of the season in Stockton, where he did well with 23 points in 18 games.  That's a regression, no question.  Wasn't too bad in the AHL playoffs, 4 pts in 6 games but with only 1 goal to his name.  At 5'11" and 176 lbs, his size is also an issue (Why is it that all the Oilers top offensive prospects are too small to play in the NHL?  GRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!).  Decent results considering he was a 5th round draft pick in 2008, but likely falls short of the NHL.  50-50 he gets re-signed – he's an RFA this year.  Would make a decent trade bait – ceiling I'd say is a 3rd rounder for him, and that more than covers his draft position.  An honourable career if it's over for him, but likely won't make the NHL.   

Tyler Pitlick

His offense regressed by 13 points this year, and his defense regressed from -1 to -8.  Better things are expected of a 2nd round draft pick.  Is certainly big enough to play in the NHL, but whether his game is enough to do that is another story.  OK numbers in the playoffs for OKC, but nothing substantial.  Next year is a contract year for him, he needs a big rebound season or he'll likely be flushed from the system, maybe signed for Stockton if he's lucky.  

Curtis Hamilton

Also a 2nd round pick, he lit the WHL on fire, but that offense hasn't translated to the AHL.  Has only scored 10 goals and 20 points in his entire pro career….ouch.  But it gets worse….he was at least decent defensively last year at +2, this year he's -11….double ouch.  Pointless in 3 AHL playoff games over 2 years….triple ouch.  Hamilton is looking like more of a draft bust all the time.  He may not even make it in Stockton at this rate….he better rebound in a big way next year or he'll be flushed from the system for sure.  

Ryan Martindale

Martindale was only a 3rd round pick so not covering his draft bet doesn't look as bad on the club – typically anyone drafted past the 2nd round you can't expect to make the NHL.  Martindale, however, if he wanted to make the NHL needed to rise above his draft position and play like a physical forward….and he hasn't – or at least when it comes to his scoring.  In 2 years he's bounced around between Stockton and OKC – and hasn't played in the playoffs for either club which should say something.  But, nevertheless, 16 points in the AHL and 17 points in the ECHL – both the totals for 2 seasons – won't get you noticed by the NHL club – even for a bottom 6 position.  Compare his numbers to a legit prospect like Anton Lander, and you can see why it's not even a contest.  Likely flushed from the system after his contract is up.  

Alex Plante

Plante has had NHL cups of coffee with the Oilers in 3 of the last 4 seasons.  In those 10 games he has 2 assists and is -1.  This year was the only year he wasn't called up because there were so many other players who have moved ahead of him on the depth chart.  Even for OKC he's played sparingly, and hardly at all in the playoffs.  Massive bust as a 1st round pick in 2007 and likely serves as a cautionary tale for drafting d-men in the 1st round.  Flushed from the system this year.  

Honourable mentions

None, I'm only concentrating on the best of the best and the worst of the worst on the Barons this year.  Everyone else on the roster is somewhere in between.  

Overall

In my opinion, our expectations should be low as far as our farm club promotions are concerned – don't expect anyone to make the jump to the big club, then be surprised if someone does make it to the opening night roster.  Lander and Hartikainen are closest, but IMO they still don't make it this year.    

So as you may have gathered, our backwards cousins the Nucks were swept in 4.  Ouch.  I have sympathy calls to my father and brother to make today.  At popular request and at no considerable expense, I have put together a post-mortem of the Canucks and a list of tasks required in order to return this once-almost-proud franchise to its days of near-glory.

Wait.  I'm going for sympathy.  OK, I got this.

So, all of us Oilers fans have gotten pretty damn good at crying into our beers after games.  Especially home games.  And away games.  And pretty much any game involving our hockey team.  Even against Calgary's AHL squad.  We are in a unique position to really empathise with the Canucks fan base, because we could be seeing our future!

What if the Wunderkids can't save us from Kevin Lowe?  Imagine, if you will, if, after all our heartache, suffering, and shouting at inept hockey players on TV to just shoot the damn puck already, our team was finally honed into a core that was capable not just of hoisting the Cup, but of dominating the League for 3-5 years… then got nothing to show for it!  Imagine watching them fail in the playoffs year after year after year until suddenly you wake up one morning and you aren't Cup contenders anymore… you're just a fairly good hockey team.  Imagine, if you will, the agony of having gone through all the blowing ass that is required in order to get good, then getting nothing to show for it but a couple of Presiden'ts Trophies!  Imagine knowing that you are closer to the next rebuild than you are to the next Cup.  This is a very possible future for the Edmonton Oilers fanbase, and it is why there will be neither pointing nor HA-ha-ing from me as the Canucks ignomiously bow out once again, not with a bang, not with a whimper… with a whine.

How do you know Canucks fans are numb, apathetic and lethargic?  How do you know that they've taken so many slings and arrows that more misfortune is meaningless?  They're not clamouring to lynch either of their goalies!  btw that was almost, but not quite, a joke.  

One quick point, however – the Canucks have, as a franchise, been the first to point at the ref and make annoying whining sounds, and have been doing so consistently for decades.  Whether that rivalry with the referees is justified or not, in this instance Henrik Sedin had no one to blame but himself for his OT penalty.  Yeah, I know it was shoulder to shoulder – but look at how buddy went into the boards!  You can hurt people that way and Sedin damn well knows it.  That call simply had to be made, from a player safety point of view.  C'mon Sedin, take some damn responsibility!  Remember Torres?  "If I don't make that hit, I don't have a job in this league."  I disagreed with him – but I respected his honesty!

Ooooooh… Raffi Torres.  MG pursued him at the deadline but didn't want to "overpay for a fourth liner."  In my day, I've said some fairly unflattering things about Mr. Torres, but in the playoffs, the man is a potential game changer every shift.  Calling him a fourth liner in the regular season is a stretch – doing so in the playoffs shows a basic lack of having anything resembling a clue.

On the topic of MG screwing up – if you've read anything I've said about Vancouver, you can fill in the blanks here.  Blank goalie should have been traded for a King's ransom last year, while blank goalie (who was clearly the better keeper in the playoffs btw) should have been started in every game.  Resoundingly stupid instance of asset mismanagement.  How many years will it be before Canucks fans are willing to acknowledge that #TeamSchneider and the franchise's inability to stand up to it marked the beginning of the end of their Cup window?

Schneider played well in game 4.  He gave his team a fair chance to win, but he's going to get very, very tired of watching the replay of the elimination goal.  Wholly and eminently saveable.  I'll be interested to see how the fanbase treats Schneider.  I don't think they'll turn on him until Luongo's gone because many of them believe that knowing he is the team's only option will cause Schneider to take his game up another level, sort of in the manner in which a compulsive gambler who has just lost all his spending money feels he must now risk his rent money in order to make up his losses.  Do I need to express derison of that kind of sloppy thinking?  I think I'd probably better, just in case it isn't implied.  This is the hockey equivalent of betting borrowed money on an inside straight.

Anyways, what would I do if I was in charge of the Canucks?  Well, they sort of have to give the current core one last try – more because of the difficulty inherent in destroying and recreating a core than because this one is likely to succeed.  So if you aren't looking to make meaningful changes to your roster, how can you drastically shake things up?

You got it – fire the coach!  AV is a great regular season coach, but frankly, I know goldfish who could have coached that Nucks squad to greater post-season success.  AV has been unable to respond to other coaches' stratagems, and even more importantly he has been unable to change the "victim's mentality" in Vancouver.  Blaming referees for losses in games that the team just failed to win has been a Vancouver hallmark since Christ was a kid.  We've all noted how reprehensibly the fanbase treats their goaltenders – it's worth pointing out how little public support Luongo has gotten from his squadmates.  Many fans still blame Lu for the loss in the Finals to the Bruins, and this is in no small part because the Canucks, as a team, lacked the courage and character to take responsiblity for their failure in the Finals.  Because the team didn't take responsibility, the fans were free to create the revisionist history that made the SCF loss "Luongo's fault", and this lead directly to the #TeamSchneider movement next playoffs.

In short, fire the coach ASAP!  Now you'll be asking me who to hire.  The answer is they don't need a coach - AV was a great coach!  They need a father figure.  Give them a drill seargent or something – an extremely adult man who will teach them to be strong through adversity and take responsibility for their actions.  Candidates include Bill Cosby, Joe Dimaggio, Major Payne, Brock Samson, and Burt Reynolds.  Anyone here seen Mystery Alaska?  Burt Reynolds is exactly the man for the job!  I don't mean to get all knuckle-draggingly macho on you, but the Canucks are quite simply in dire need of someone to teach them how to be men.

However, firing the coach is only the first step.  The Canucks will then go on to spend the summer in all manner of competitions ranging from arm-wrestling to dwarf-tossing to tiddly-winks, and any individual who whines, cheats or dives will be bag-skated until he pukes then fed to the fuglies at bar close.  Heh – Kesler might get the clap before he gets class, but he'll get there.

Then you have to balance the books.  The Canucks are ~6M over the cap to start next season and have only 17 players signed.  Good thing one of them's their backup goalie, signed until ten minutes after the Rapture.  Sigh, eye roll.  They'll need both their compliance buyouts.  Ballard and Booth are likely targets.  They'll lose Derek Roy for nothing, unless they can convince him to take a pay-cut to stay in Vancouver.  I'm thinking the days of Vancouver getting players to sign for 2 or 3 M less than market value are pretty much over.  Anyways, if you buy out Booth and Ballard you end up about 3M under the Cap, so hopefully you can work some magic and round out a competitive roster for 3M.

All throughout next season I would spy on the players' post-game interviews, and any time a player did anything except take full and unequivocal responsibility, I would pop out of a closet and beat him about the head and shoulders with a wiffle bat while shouting "quit being such a bunch of damned limp-wristed goalie-lynching buck-dodging ref-blaming pussies and take some responsibility for the consequences of your actions!"

It has also been obvious for… gosh, since about two games after the Hodgson trade… that the Canucks need more offence.  It has been overwhelmingly obvious all year long that they've needed a center with size.  Swinganamiss for MG on that one – he needed a poor man's Mark Messier and, in Derek Roy, he got a poor man's Sam Gagner!  …and is about to lose him for nothing!  This kind of fumblefingered idiocy sets franchises back significantly.  Mason Raymond is another valuable player the team may lose for nothing.  They've got some tough choices to make.  

Especially since they have less leverage than ever with regards to trading Luongo!  You've gotta think even MG knows better than to keep 5M sitting on the bench every night in a season when he can't afford to ice a complete roster.  You've also gotta think other GMs know that MG has doorknob-humped his way into a corner.  It's like writing your way into the corner, except no one wants to come into the room to help you…

OK, yucky imagery aside, I'd still deal Schneider if Luongo was willing to stay.  If I was Luongo, I wouldn't be willing to stay.  I'd tell them to go ahead and buy me out so I could go and play for Chicago for .5M per year.  Chicago + Dirt Cheap Luongo = ZOMGWTFBBQ!  And I spoke in jest, but it actually seems possible that Luongo could be bought out!  Can you imagine?  Every doorknob in BC would be filing a restraining order against MG!

Anyways, to summarize my rambling, fire MG and hire me (at a substantial raise, thank you very much.  Doorknobs everywhere will thank you), fire the coach and hire Burt Reynolds, try to trade Schneider (if not bite the bullet and deal Luongo anywhere for anything cause that's all you'll get), buy out Ballard and Booth (lots of talent there but just not working out and all the other options are worse), work like a rented mule to draft, sign or steal a center with size at a cap hit that allows me to get the other… hmmm…. 5 players I need for under 3M. 

This plan is far from ideal and leaves the Canucks as a playoff team with mostly down arrows leading to obscurity then a rebuild.  It's also the best feasible plan I can see.  Next year they're a credible long shot to win the Cup, the year after that it's time to start building a new core.  Not because it's the ideal circumstance, but because it is the best move that I can see in what appears to be a losing endgame.  Move your rook or move your queen – either way, it's still three moves to mate.

Our young snipers may have a few things to learn, but at least they're still young enough to learn some new tricks.  The core in Vancouver sure doesn't look promising, and what a coaching and management gong show they have on the goaltending front.

Sadly, the Habs have taken on a stink similar to the Canucks, with a whiny coach lamenting the injustice of it all and players that are coming up way short.  I'll say one thing about Ralph, I can't imagine him giving a press conference after a playoff loss and projecting "beaten" like Vigneault and Therrien have in the last week.

Maclean has done a masterful job in Ottawa all year with his team down some major league talent.  That bunch has been underestimated by many for a couple of years (not me, BTW), and their leadership in Alfie, Spezz, Neil (and the list goes on), have shown what it takes to win consistently.  And holy goalie recruiting!  There are lessons to be learned from the organization in Ottawa.  I don't know if they have what it takes to win the cup, but the Sens are not a team that will just fade away without a fight.  Hopefully the boys have had a chance to watch a team with heart doing a little overachieving.

And then there's the Leafs, who I still can't bring myself to talk about other than to give them some grudging respect.  Carlyle is another master who has made the most of the pieces he's been given.  If they can beat Boston, which I'd being will to wager a few Quatloos on, they actually have a shot.

Gotta love the playoffs, even if the youngsters didn't have the jamb to get themselves into the big show this year.  Here's to hoping that a few changes and some soul searching during the off season will see us make it to the big show next year.  And please Jebus, don't let us get swept away in 4 like those sad, sad Canuckleheads.

So if you read my last story about Management at the trade deadline, then this one will probably make sense.  If not, then it won't make any sense at all.  You'll just think I'm some crazy idiot writing nonsense.  Which is exactly what I am.  But anyway here's the continuation of that story.

Taylor Hall: To the Future..

Taylor Hall arrives, stunned, into 2023 Edmonton. The new arena is up and running. The Downtown Core is revitalized. It's a beautiful sunny day, and shoppers and pedestrians are everywhere around. He is standing on 104^th ave looking east, at the behemoth in front of him. Rexall Place 2.0, which has since been dubbed “The Edmonton Coliseum” for historic purposes, extends, what seems to be all around, even blocking out the sun in some spots. The sides of the arena are adorned with giant hanging posters of Himself, Jordan Eberle, RNH, and Nail Yakupov. The Billboard next to the arena has a picture of Justin Schultz, along with the advertisement for a new golf putter. “Hit the hole, even from 20 feet away” it reads.

After taking it all in, he heads towards the arena. Walking up to where, in his time, sat the Baccarat Casino, he arrives at the front doors of the “Coliseum.” On the way, he walks by the Wayne Gretzky statue, which is in its rightful place out front of the Coliseum.

Walking through the front doors, he began looking around for the dressing rooms.  Walking out into the stands, he looks down at the ice surface. Some players are down there. There is clearly a practice going on. The arena is huge. It seems twice as big as the old place. Everything is immaculate and still looks brand new. It's a good thing they didn't cheap out on this place. Everything looks amazing.

Looking up towards the rafters, Hallsy is stunned to see some extra banners hanging up:  Stanley Cup Champions………but he can't quite read the years on them, but there is definitely more than one…… He notices that there is another retired jersey up there too. #39 Doug Weight.

Hallsy: *thinking to himself * Where the hell is Smytty's jersey?

Upset with this fact, he heads down to the ice surface. Some familiar faces are out there. Some not familiar. There doesn't seem to be a coach on the ice, so this practice must be optional. He watches for a few minutes and then heads back to where he figures the dressing rooms are.

After walking into a couple bathrooms and a broom closet, he finds the dressing room.

Hallsy: Why did they make every door in here an automatic opening, giant Oilers logo? Like the one leaving the dressing room in the old Rexall. Like, really even the bathrooms?

Hallsy walks into the dressing room and looks around.

What a sight to behold. Orange and Blue everywhere, “Protect this House” painted above the door, and the walls are decorated with a room spanning painting of the Boys on the Bus raising the cup, coupled with pictures of the current team raising the cup. Tastefully integrated together, so it appears as if everyone is part of the the others team as well. There's Gretzky cheering with Nuge and Messier cheering with Hall. Hallsy can't quite see how many more replica cups are in the trophy case. He leans over for a better look, when suddenly, a voice!

?????: So you've arrived, have you?

Startled, Hallsy spins around to see Nuge sitting on the dressing room bench behind him. But it doesn't really look like Nuge. He's bigger. Looks rougher, and has a mean scar on his cheek. He seems to be missing 2 or 3 teeth.

Hallsy: Nuge? Is that you?

Old Nuge: Hello, Hallsy. We've been waiting for you.

Hallsy: Waiting for me?

All of a sudden there is quite a commotion and players start pouring into the dressing room after practice. Hallsy sits down beside Nuge and looks on at all the players.  He knows some faces, some he doesn't.  The most familiar face of all, walks in, and straight over to him. He's quite a bit bigger and there is a “C” on his jersey.

Hallsy: Whoa!

Old Hallsy: Hey it's young me! Finally you got here.

Hallsy: You knew I was coming? Like Nuge knew?

Old Hallsy: Nuge fortold of this a few weeks ago. We just weren't sure when you'd be arriving. The whole team has been waiting for you to show up.

Looking over Old Hallsy's shoulder, Hall sees Old Eberle walking over. Also a bit bigger but more so, he seems to glide between the other players with ease.

Old Ebs walks up to Nuge and just looks at him. Nuge looks straight back at Eberle, but says nothing. No words are exchanged.

Then, out of nowhere,

Old Ebs: Good Call, Nuge.

Old Ebs then walks away.

Hallsy: What? What was that all about?

Old Hallsy: Oh, they're telepathic now. Hardly say a word to each other….

Ebs returns shortly, and hands Hallsy a map of the Edmonton Coliseum.

Old Ebs: Here you go, buddy! This will help you get around here. It's pretty big. We all got lost for the first few months.

Hallsy: Thanks Ebs! Wow look at you! Nice beard!

Ebs looks at Hallsy and then hits him in the face with a pie he seemed to conjure out of nowhere.

Old Ebs: HA! Punked! I've now punked you in 2 different time dimensions! Haha!

Hallsy wipes the pie from his face.

Hallsy: Yeah great Ebs, I'm going to get you so bad when I get back to the past!

All of a sudden grumbling can be heard coming from somewhere. Grumble Grumble Grumble!

????: You damn rookies! Taking my 4^th line minutes! Those are mine! All I got left!  Now hand me my dentures!

Old Hallsy: Man he's just been getting more and more grumpy as the years go on!

Hallsy looks around the crowd and sees a sight for sore eyes. Ryan Smyth is sitting at his usual spot in the dressing room.

Hallsy rushes over to him.

Hallsy: Smytty! Holy smokes you're still playing?! You must be at least…. 47 years old by now!

Smytty: Yeah, what's it to ya!? Nuge said you'd be coming. You know, I don't remember you talking so much.

Hallsy: ummm yeah, ok, so you're still playing for us eh?

Smytty: I was born an Oiler, and I'll die an Oiler!

Hallsy: You were born?…That doesn't even make any……..Whatever…..never mind……I thought you would have retired by now!

Smytty: Did you not hear me? I'll DIE an Oiler!!!

Hallsy: Ohhhkaaaayyy…….ummmm…you mean like literally eh?  Ummm wow.  Anyway,  glad to see you still bleed team colors, Smytty!

Smytty: Go outside and cut me a switch damn you! And get off of my lawn!  Bring back Matlock!!!!!

Hallsy, confused, turns and walks back to the “former kid line”

Hallsy : Hey where's Schultzie?

Old Ebs and Old Nuge have a brief telepathic conversation. Old Ebs then turns to Hallsy.

Old Ebs: I think now he's in uhhhhh….. Nuge figures New Jersey. But before that he played in Nashville, He played in Phoenix before they went to Quebec, then after they moved he played there too, and also he played in Toronto, Tampa Bay, a 1 year stint in LA, ummm, he was in the KHL for a while, gee, by now I think he's played almost everywhere possible. Even Florida for a time before they folded, and he played in the Swedish Elite League. They somehow even let him into the CHL when he wanted to play there, too. A couple years back he even played in Australia.   Did you know he could play goalie too? Mad skills man.  Pretty much the only place he hasn't played hockey in, is Anaheim. Didn't say why…..

Hallsy: ………..

Old Nuge: I could not forsee that happening…..I ….was….too….young still………could…have…stopped him….

Old Nuge begins shaking violently…

Old Ebs: Whoa! Nuge! Remember what happened last time you tried to alter the past? It's not worth it man!

Old Hallsy turns back from his locker and looks at Hallsy very seriously.

Old Hallsy: Alright, past me, Nuge has informed me as to why you're here. You have overheard Coach Krueger's inspirational speech, and are here to up your game. To go, as they say, Supernova.

Hallsy: Yeah…it was just so damn inspirational! I just had to come here. To play against you, future me.

Old Hallsy: Hey Ebs, remember that speech Krugs gave in game 7 last year? We were down 3-2 going into the 3^rd period. We came back and won 5-3. Wow…seriously….

Hallsy: So Coach is still around?

Old Hallsy: Yup. Been our coach for 10 years, now. Never led us astray. No matter how much we might have thought in the beginning.

Somewhere, hundreds of miles away some goofball wannabe blogger named “Ace” can be heard remarking, “Well F— Me, he's still here! And he's the coach to take us to the top! Shut me right up.”

Old Hallsy begins changing into his street clothes. Regular Hallsy notices that even his t-shirt has a “C” on it. He finds that peculiar, but shrugs it off.

Old Hallsy: Ok it's time to get down to business. 5:30 am. Be here. If you want to up your game, be here sooner.

Hallsy: So should I be here at 5 then? Or do you really mean 5:30. Should I come at 4:30?

Old Hallsy: You come when you are prepared for it.

Hallsy: ???….umm….ok….

Old Hallsy: You'll be training with me and Yak. He's still out celebrating his goal from last night. Nobody has seen him all day. But he'll be here at 3:30am.

Hallsy: So…does that mean I should be here at 3:30? or 4….or…..

Old Hallsy: You come when you are prepared for it.

Hallsy: Wha???……so like 3?…. Man I wish I understood myself…

With that, Both Hallsys turn and walk out of the dressing room. The rest of the team follow their Captain out.

To Be Continued….

So, the city says that the arena deal might be dead, since it's coming down to signing the final arrangements and the province isn't coughing up the $55 million in cash that's missing. 

I disagree. 

The arena deal might be dead for now, but it's not completely dead.  You know who's coughing up the remaining cash?  Katz.  Yes, Katz has said he's not pouring anymore money into the arena project, but he's the one who stands to lose the most if the arena deal dies, and he's also got the least amount of leverage in this deal. 

Now sure, the city and Katz's group could sign the agreement as is, and hope and pray that oil royalties recover enough that the province might kick in the money.  But, even with a better balance sheet I don't think the province is going to kick in the money. 

So let's review what's happening from all sides of the equation. 

The province – Look, if Alberta only had 1 major city instead of 2, then the province would probably be OK with kicking in some cash, even in the state we're in now.  But the province has the future to think about.  Redford's government is unpopular enough as it is without taking more political risks, and as I've mentioned in the past, Calgary is looking for a new home for the Flames in the near future.  Anything Edmonton gets for their arena, Calgary will want as well.  The PCs know this, and they don't want to start a firestrom…as I said they're unpopular enough as it is.  If Edmonton gets cash and Calgary doesn't, Calgary city council and it's people will remember this and then watch the PC's popularity nosedive.  The province has enough of a financial mess to deal with right now without being backed into a corner by municipal politicians trying to score brownie points with their citizens for their re-election campaigns the way Peter Lougheed used to rag on the feds when he was our premier.  It's out of their own playbook, and they're not going to take the bait and allow it to be used against them.  We can expect a big pile of nothing from the province. 

The city – Look, the arena is a hot button issue with the city's electorate already as it is.  Many of these people are uninformed about the subject and spout off about using tax dollars for a private enterprise, or not paying for something they're not going to use, or the whole "It didn't work in Atlanta" thing, but elections are not based on the electorate's intelligence or it's knowing of the facts, but the majority's willingness to vote one way or the other.  Like it or not, a sizeable amount of Edmontonians are opposed to the project, and if the city shells out more money for the project than they already have, it could tip some undecided voters against them and cost the incumbents the municipal election in November.   The mayor and city councillors aren't idiots, they know exactly what the mood of the arena project is like in this city, and they know they can score some points with us by refusing to put more money into the project than they already have.  Of course, common sense and knowledge of the deal as it is says they've already given Katz a generous enough deal anyway, so it's a happy coincidence that common sense and political opportunity are one in this case.  No municipal politician will risk the election over this.  They also know that Edmontonians already had to deal with Pocklington's threats to move the team, and they're tired of the drama.  They also know the economics of the NHL, and they know that it is highly unlikely Katz would be able to move his team somewhere else and make as much money as he could with the Oilers, even with an arena deal already worked out.  Katz moving the Oilers is an empty threat, and we know it. 

The NHL – Even if Katz wanted to move the team, it's unlikely the NHL would allow it.  Why?  Edmonton is a top 10 team in terms of revenue, and with the massive financial failure of so many American NHL franchises the NHL will not allow a decline in overall league revenues by allowing one of the teams that are actually profitable to move to a market where profit will either decrease or be non-existent.  The NHL has to OK any franchise move, and it won't allow the Oilers to leave, at least not in the state it's books are in right now.  Heck, if worse comes to worse maybe the NHL will mediate and come to the rescue with the rest of the money….they do have worse ways they're spending money right now, after all….*cough**cough* owning the Phoenix Coyotes *cough**cough.* 

Katz group – Katz has the most to lose from the deal falling apart, which despite what his spin doctors say will likely mean the Katz Group buckles and agrees to come up with the remaining $55 million plus cover any expense overruns on construction.  Why do I say this?  Simple.  Katz has the least amount of leverage out of any of the parties involved.  Katz already tried an insinuation that he was moving the team, and it backfired on him.  His $100 million commitment, the only one he's making to the project, is being done over, what, 20 years with no upfront money?  Katz with this arrangement has basically erased all the good PR from when he first bought the team and pledged $100 million of his own money towards the arena.  Edmonton already knows Katz got a sweetheart deal, and he is the 1 party that can very easily afford to pay more.  The anti-arena crowd also sees Katz as greedy since he is quabbling about sums of money that his net worth eclipses by multiples of 6 figures, and of course a lot of them oppose to Katz getting any public money in the 1st place.  That's 2 negatives in PR, so the public is onside much moreso with the city than with Katz.  As I've already said, the NHL will not allow the Oilers to move, so Katz's big piece of leverage is gone.  And really, it doesn't take great  business or economic intelligence to see that a billionaire can easily afford $55 million, and the longer Katz goes without kicking in the money the greedier he will appear….and really, it's hard to see how he wouldn't be greedy in that case.  Of course, Katz is only doing what all his predecessor NHL owners did before him:  hold the municipal government hostage and pay as little money towards the project as possible.  But in this day and age with more US state and municipal governments on the brink of financial ruin or already bankrupt, the alternative for markets to move to shrinks in a hurry.  Gone are the days when NHL arenas will be 100% subsidized by public money.  And really, name 1 market that would be better for the Oilers to be in than Edmonton….right now, there aren't any.  Gone are experiments with teams in the Southern US states.  Gone is there any unexplored territory for the NHL to expand to other than a very few cities in the US, Quebec City, and somehow getting teams in Europe – and none of those places would mean more profit than Edmonton (or in the case of QC, someone else already has dibs on a potential franchise there).  Katz in the end will pony up the money, because bottom line the provincial and municipal governments will go on with or without the Oilers.  Edmonton will let the Oilers go because they know someone else will swoop in and fill the void before too long.  It's only Katz that has something to lose if the arena deal falls through.   

This is an expensive game of chicken, people, but it's a game of chicken that Katz in the end will lose.  He'll blink first and pony up the rest of the dough. 

So, the Oilers didn't win the lottery for the 1st time in 4 years….not exactly a shocker seeing as how the Oilers had a less than 5% chance of winning – probably a blessing in disguise anyway because we need more rookies less and proven NHLers more when it comes to our lineup. 

The NHL's draft lottery indeed changed the fortunes of the Edmonton Oilers in terms of the talent level.  The Oilers have the best stars-in-waiting top 6 in the NHL.  Remember back before the days of Hall, Nuge, and Eberle?  Robert Nillson was one of our best players.  Patrick O'Sullivan was a 2nd liner.  Shawn Horcoff crashing and burning as 1st line center post-2006.  The team's fortunes went up and down depending on Ales Hemsky's injury situation.  Well, those days are over, but with the advent of the salary cap, there's only so much money to go around and you can't have stars at every position – or if you do, make sure you win while some of them are still on their ELCs.  The days of the Oilers dynasty where you'd be hard pressed to find a weakness on the team at any given time is over in the salary cap era.  You'll be lucky to keep all your star players together period, never mind adding more star players.  Oh if only Katz had been able to buy the Oilers from Pocklington instead of the EIG….the 90s would have looked a lot different for the Oilers.  That '94 cup would've been ours instead of the New York Rangers….I mean we practically built that team with dynasty era Oilers anyway. 

Anyway, I'm getting off topic….now that we know we're drafting 7th as expected, let's go over  what we should and shouldn't do with the pick. 

Let's not….

Trade the pick, unless we get a trade offer that knocks our socks off

This means that unless we get a Shea Weber, Steve Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, or Erik Karlsson type player back we hang on to the pick.  Not likely to happen.   

Why?  The player we're most likely to get is going to be a top 6 forward or top pairing defenseman.  Those players don't exactly grow on trees – the availability of these player types is few and far between – and the few that are available are likely guys you wouldn't want in your lineup anyway or guys that wouldn't want to play for you or are too expensive cap space wise.

I'll put it this way:  the best trade chip available this summer will likely be Ales Hemsky.  And the reason why is he's injury prone, and there are questions about his boxcars ceiling, as well as his attitude.  If none of these were question marks, he wouldn't be available via trade.  Make sense?  Good.  

The reality of the situation is that the only legitimate option for acquiring these players is through the draft.  Seriously, look at the top players on all the Stanley Cup contenders.  Chances are, most of the players are home-developed draft picks.  Plus, this is supposed to be the deepest draft in decades.  Trading the pick for a proven NHLer might make sense in a way from organizational need, but in reality it would represent a mistake that would haunt the team for the next 20 years.  Did you enjoy seeing Zach Parise blossom in New Jersey?  How about Corey Perry developing in Anaheim?  Shane Doan playing in Phoenix?  No?  Think how much better our lineups would've been pre-rebuild if we'd had them on our roster, as we almost did via draft with Parise and Doan, and via trade with Perry.

I'd trade 2014's 1st round pick at this point, but not this year's.  

Trade down

As I already alluded to, this is the deepest draft in many years.  Don't expect a lot of movement in terms of teams moving down or up in the batting order.  It makes about as much sense for the Oilers to move down as it does for other teams to dance with us and get us to trade up, as much as we might want Nathan Mackinnon over Sean Monahan in Oilers' silks.  It's not going to happen.   

This is a better option than trading the pick altogether, but not by much.  No thanks.  The Oilers have done this in the past and it hasn't worked out well.  I don't recall it working out well for other teams either.   

Overpay to trade up

This will likely end up biting us in the butt, as well.  Any attempt to move up will likely result in us parting with one of the wonderkids, especially to move up to one of the top 3 spots.  Probably the most likely scenario from a purely hockey standpoint is trading Hemsky to the Flames and swapping picks, but even that likely won't happen.  Oilers don't want to trade a legit roster player to a division rival, especially one they'll play often in the season.  Same reason Jarome Iginla wasn't available to the Oilers pre-deadline.  Oilers are already 1-0 in trades with the Flames (remember the Steve Staios trade?) and they should leave it at that for a long time, until we can take advantage of Jay Feaster's stupidity again. 

Let's…..

Draft the BPA

Logic says this is what we should do, unless we can really get a better player in return (which as I've already said is likely not the case). 

Bring him along slowly

We don't urgently need more top 6 rookies on our roster.  Ales Hemsky's replacement is already on the team in Nail Yakupov, so trading Hemsky is not a concern.  However, whomever we draft, as a raw rookie, would likely not be an upgrade on anyone in our top 6 now.  Sure, give him the standard 10 game tryout if you need to, but expect to send him back to junior regardless, unless he absolutely turns our heads.  Then, if he's still not up to snuff in 2014 training camp (which he likely won't be), send him down to OKC for seasoning.  We would likely expect him on the roster by the end of the season or 2015, if not later. 

I alluded to this in my last blog, but Sam Gagner is a good litmus test for this year's pick, and most people agreed he could've used more time in junior or some time in the AHL before coming up here.  Heck, he's still trying to shake off some rough-around-the-edges defensive play and he's terrible in the faceoff circle at this point in time.  He's still valuable to the team, of course, but we should've handled him differently in hindsight.  Heck, Nuge has been in the league less than Gagner has but is already showing signs that he's going to leapfrog Gagner in defensive play and faceoffs next year. 

Attempt to get additional draft picks

We successfully traded Dustin Penner for the LA Kings' 1st rounder in 2011, and we're about the reap the fruits of that acquisition as Oscar Klefbom has a good chance of joining the team next year, if not soon after, after playing with men in the SEL for a couple of years.  It'll be harder than in the past, because as I mentioned most clubs will hold onto their picks this year, especially the 1st and 2nd rounders.  But everyone has their price.  Dangle a player that the Oilers could afford to lose (like Ales Hemsky), and we might get another pick.  Teams in the lower rung of the depth, of course, are playoff and Stanley Cup contenders, and would be much more interested in getting a player they can win with now than a draft pick. 

I see Ales Hemsky lost either at the draft or packaged in the summer for MacT's big splash that he's talked about in the past. 

On another topic

I have unfortunately received a pink slip from my employer, and my time officially ended yesterday.  I'm an IT guy who has experience in Desktop support, with basic networking and a couple of other things as well. 

If your employers are looking for more IT guys, please help a brother out and let me know via a message in my inbox or a comment on this blog.  Local Edmonton and area employers only, please. 

There are a few simple stats that I like to use to gauge the overall competitiveness of a given team.  I feel that over the course of a full season, these humble stats show which teams actually DESERVED the boxcars they put up, and which teams just benefited from lucky bounces (you know, like Florida last year).  I am hoping to use these stats to show the momentum of each of the three franchises.  Then I will extrapolate each team's regular season and playoff success for next year.  All stats are given (this year), (last year), (year before last).

GOAL DIFFERENTIAL

This is pretty simple – one mark of a good team is that they vastly outscore the "average" team they are being judged against in this stat.  However, it must be noted that the NHL's segregation of the Conferences skews this stat somewhat.  If, say, you are in an elite division, you play elite teams 6 times each.  If you are in a lame duck division you get to wipe the floor with a bunch of stumbling blowasses 6 times per year.  Keep in mind, then, that the Oilers were playing against teams that finished higher than them, the Flames were on average playing teams slightly better than them, and the Nucks were laughing their way to many easy victories.

Edmonton Oilers -9, -27, -76

Calgary Flames -32, -24, +13

Vancouver Canucks +6, +51, +77

IF we accept this as a reliable indicator then it is good news for the Oil!  We have experienced a consistent and significant increase in goals differential, which IMO reaches "bubble playoff team" status between -2 and +10.  +10-+20 I think of as "playoff team" and anything higher than +20 is a credible threat to win the Cup.  Again, IMO.  I do feel quite safe in saying that this shows that we have improved drastically relative to our divisional opponents over this three year span.  I'm not sure yet if I'm more comfortable with shots differential than goals differential.  That'll be a blog for another time.  Anyway, yay us, hopefully I'm not smoking crack and things are gonna get better next year.

However, if this stat is useful than our divisional rivals are both on the way down.  Calgary's incipient status of Only Team Worse Than Edmonton has been anticipated for three years now by everyone not having their wage paid by the Flames ownership, so I'm not going to add much except to say that these numbers parallel the decline in their key veterans.

Vancouver is, on paper, a much better team than their +6 shows, but three important things changed between this year and last year – their division improved (meaning less easy wins than in prior years), they lead the league in games lost to injury (tough to win games when you spend most of the year missing two or more of your most important players), and they spent every game with one of the best players on their team on the bench (you know, the horrible case of asset mismanagement that is the Luongo saga.  Allow me to say once again that MG is a total fool who should have sold Schneider last off-season when his trade value was meteoric).  I suppose Schneider would still command a pretty penny if they decided to trade him, but the return would be diminished over what it could have been last year, and the franchise and management would look extremely foolish.  Could they actually use a compliance buyout on Luongo?  I can't see it happening, but it just boggles the mind that one of the best goaltenders in the league is riding the pine every night in Vancouver.

SPECIAL TEAMS (PP, PK)

Oilers, 20.1, 83.4. 20.6, 82.4.  14.5, 77.0

Flames 20.0, 81.5.17.7, 84.3.  19.5, 81.2

Canucks 15.8, 84.0.  19.8, 86.0.  24.3, 85.6

I look at this as sort of a "wild card" among these stats.  I find special teams are most decisive for "playoff bubble" teams.  When you're sitting in that -2 to +10 goal differential territory, having strong special teams makes you much more likely to turn that mediocre goal differential into mostly close wins with the odd blowout loss rather than being a team that is just straight up being outscored consistently.

However, taken by itself I haven't really found it to be significant.  Definitely encouraging for Oilers fans as our PP and PK have both been in the top 10 for the last two years.  I remember an in-game interview with Scotty Bowman years ago where he spoke of his organization's goal to have their PP rank + PK rank = 10 or less.  I think special teams start to really be decisive in the playoffs, but in the regular season are less important.

WINNING PERCENT WHEN SCORING FIRST

This one is less self-explanatory than the others.  Put simply, I believe that the better the team is, the less of an advantage they will requre to lock away the win, in the same manner that an elite chess player only needs a slight advantage to be sure of the win.  Granted hockey is far more random than chess, I still feel that winning the vast majority of games in which you score first is an excellent indicator of how good your squad is compared to the average squad in the NHL.

Oilers .500, .575, .563

Flames .600, .610, .718

Nucks.645, .750, .837

Wow, we stink by this metric!  Given that it seems to parallel the fortunes of Calgary and Vancouver, it seems relevant.  By this metric, Edmonton has serious troubles closing out games.  Which seems to echo the season we just watched.  There is work, great work, to be done in our bottom 6.

This metric seems to indicate that a variance of +-.1 is quite significant.  I'll have to give that more thought another time though.

5V5 FOR/AGAINST

This shows how often even strength goals are being scored by you and against you.  Above 1 is good, below 1 is bad.  It is an excellent way to remove the impact of special teams.

Edmonton 0.90, 0.91, 0.74

Calgary 0.68, 0.89, 1.09

Vancouver 1.02, 1.19, 1.32

Not surprisingly, this metric mirrors most of the rest – things in Edmonton were terrible and are slowly progressing towards mediocrity; Calgary was competitive three years ago and has been in decline ever since; and Vancouver absolutely dominated the year they went to the finals, were less dominant the year after and by some metrics are barely treading water right now.

CONCLUSIONS

If special teams are a good indicator of playoff success, Vancouver is going to be at a disadvantage many nights.  The moment the Canucks announced they were keeping Schneider and dealing Luongo they drastically reduced their chances to win this year, and for the next two years.  Sometimes, the trades you don't make are the best ones.  This will not be that case.  However, I hope the fact that they are no longer Cup contenders works in their favour, and the lessened pressure to win helps them out.  I think winning the Cup would be great for their fan base.  Some of their fans are vocally ignorant and annoying, but they get a lot of ignorant and offensive treatment not only from fans of every other Canadian (and many American) teams, but also from colour commentators and talking heads.  Also, the Vancouver rivalry has been more interesting to me than the Flames rivalry since, oh, about the mid-90s.  I see Vancouver as maybe 15% likely to hoist a Cup this year.

Next year I predict Vancouver posting slight improvements in all categories, especially if they manage to get something in return for Luongo (spoiler:not likely).  However, the dominant Vancouver is a thing of the past.  Their core peaked two years ago – don't get me wrong, they have a great team and some great players, but those players are all going to diminish a little bit with the passing of every season.  Next year they will make the playoffs but no success is assured once there.  IMO Vancouver has missed their best chances and is squandering their best chance to extend their Cup window by skating around with a franchise goaltender tied behind their backs every game.

Hard to say much about Calgary that isn't negative.  Glencross.  That Baertschi kid.  Drafting high.  Hopefully ownership is just rope-a-doping their fanbase with all this talk of "retooling", cause Calgary doesn't have the horses to go anywhere in this league.  They are about where Edmonton was when Edmonton decided to start tanking.  They may take another course, but it's hard to see any other way for them to get the talent and depth they lack at pretty much every position.  Best thing for the Flames is to tank next year but I see them drafting ~8th.  And just in case it doesn't go without saying, no playoffs for Calgary for a while.

What to predict for Edmonton?  Most of those stats trend upwards, and are close to the "tipping point" that should have us as a playoff team by year after next at the latest.  We got the wunderkids so insert a bunch of breathless prose about how good they're going to be here.  All the important questions were answered this year, and it is crystal-clear that Whitney has no future with this team.  It is very likely that Hemsky has no role here either – I doubt we'll get more than a 3rd rounder for him at this point, which could lead to him being kept around then lost for nothing.  We'll lose Whitney for nothing as a UFA because Oilers management are a bunch of entitled clowns.  Ditto Jones, Belanger, Eager, Smithson, probably Brown (who might be able to handle the 13th forward role, I dunno).  None of those guys are going to win you Stanley Cups, but smart organizations don't piss away assets for nothing at all.  Hell, some of those guys don't even have trade value – it's no less management's fault!  Who could ever have imagined, back in the HOPE days, that Omark would do nothing of note and be lost for nothing at all!  As I am forced to say every time I talk about my team, the problem is not the players – it's the suits.  And they aren't going anywhere!  Rah bah bah wunderkids schmunderkids… There is no ship so sound that a fool cannot sink it!  And if ever there was a ship of fools piloted by the king of idiots, it is the Edmonton Oilers.

Anyway, I don't have the exact quotes but something Craig MacT said really struck a cord with me last night, and I contrasted it to something Tambo said pre-firing (obviously pre-firing, but I digress).  Remember when the Oilers were in 8th spot for 1 brief shining moment with about 20 games to go in the season?  MacT said something to the effect of he saw flaws in the team even when they were winning.  I saw that too.  The winning streak was pretty much luck and good bounces.  Whereas at the trade deadline Tambellini said something to the effect of "We're satisfied with the team we have, and we want to reward them for their winning."  

To me this says that MacT is much better at gauging how the team is performing than Tambo was.  I saw the Oilers for what they were:  a team still too young, inexperienced, and lacking in quality veteran play and leadership to have the horses to compete for a playoff spot.  

Tambo seemed to foolishly gamble on the team as it was, and of course we all know how this thing played out:  it failed.    They ended up losing 8 of their next 9 games, then finished the season with 2 wins.

I've said it before and I'll say it again:  anyone who expected the Oilers to make the playoffs this year would be disappointed.  They finished in 12th spot, right in the range I expected them to.  I wasn't disappointed, because I tempered expectations.   

If it's any consolation, we still did better than the Flames did this year. 

Also….

I'll admit it was great to stomp the Canucks 7-2 last night.  The 1st and 2nd periods I didn't tune in so much….I have a lot less patience watching the Oilers now than I used to.  But the 3rd period was awesome.  I saw the 3 goals in 4 minutes….it was great. 

But, even though the Oilers ended up on a high note, we can't get too excited about it.  After all, the Canucks were sitting a number of regulars because there was no point in risking injury for them just before the playoffs started.  When the Oilers have all their starters in place, they SHOULD be beating up the Canuck's roster stuffed with AHL players.  The most prominent guy playing last night for Vancouver, besides Luongo, was Henrik Sedin and he played a whopping 22 seconds just to keep an ironman streak going.  

And now for the draft….

First, let's get the obvious out of the way:  No one should expect the Oilers to win the draft lottery this year.  We're going to be drafting 7th this year, and we've only got a 4.7% chance of winning it.  Drafting at this spot is a little more up in the air compared to the #1s we've drafted.  Now is when the metal of Stu Macgregor will be tested.  

I've seen a lot of names bandied about at this spot, unfortunately I can't seem to find 1 simple rankings list, it's all divided amongst North American and European skaters.  Right now either way there are 2 left wingers slated to go into the spot – Russian forward Valentin Zykov currently playing in the QMJHL who is scoring at just over a point per game, and Jacob De La Rose, a Swedish meatball currently playing in the SEL.  Of course, I've heard the names Sean Monahan and Darnell Nurse amongst a couple of others bandied about in that spot….one thing's for sure, there's no clear cut Taylor vs. Tyler this year, there's too many potential names to think about.  

I think it's better to speculate at this point what the Oilers will do with this draft pick after they pick him.  Sam Gagner was taken at #6, and I think most people agree he could've used more time in junior and the AHL before coming to the Oilers.  If we use that as a litmus test, and also taking into account that we don't need more top 6 guys urgently for next season, I'd say that we take the more conventional development route with whoever we pick – give him a 10 game tryout, he won't work out, so we send him back to junior, then make him one of the last cuts in training camp in 2015 and send him to OKC.  If he lives up to his draft ranking he's made the team by the end of the year or 2016.  If it's a LWer, it makes Pajaarvi expendable.  If it's a center, Gagner is expandable.  If it's a d-man, Nick Schultz is expendable (of course he might be expandable anyway if we can get someone via trade or Free Agency, but that's a topic for another day).  

We'll know on June 30th.    

Wow.  That was interesting.  I literally spend the first two periods of that game looking at my buddy going, "WTF?!"  "WTF is going on?!  I don't understand?!"

Bizaro World Scenario #1

Corey Potter scores 2 goals in 1 game, to bring his season total to 3.  Wow.

He almost equaled his entire season output in 1 game.  Wow.

Bizarro World Scenario #1: It Happened.

Bizarro World Scenario #2

The 4th line plays like they are NHL players, more or less.  Ryan Smyth looked faster.  Not much, but it looked like he was faster to me.

Bizarro World Scenario #2 : It Happened.

Bizarro World Scenario #3

The Edmonton Oilers score 6 goals on 12 shots.  Meanwhile the Minnesota Wild fire 21 at Khabibulin with none getting past him.  When was the last time a team scored on 50% of their shots in a game?  Normally that would be like 12 or 15 goals.  But since the it's the Oilers it was only 6.

Yeah. It happened.

Bizarro World Scenario #4

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Minnesota Wild.  Self Explanatory.

So….That happened.

Bizarro World Scenario #5

Ralph Krueger realizes that the Oilers got outplayed the ENTIRE game, and without some hockey gods and Khabibulin intervention they would have lost.  Krueger then analyzes his game plans and makes changes to allow for successful zone exits.  Then Kreuger realizes that man to man coverage is horrible, and switches to zone coverage next year, with immediate results.  As Dan Tencer said on Inside Sports: "There's a reason zone coverage was outlawed in the NBA.  Because it works"

Bizarro World Scenario #5:  In our dreams.

Honestly though, it looked like 90% of that game was played in the Oilers own end, with Minnesota firing a grand total of 39 shots and Edmonton a grand total of 17.  

39 shots allowed?! Wow.  Only 17 taken?! Wow.

Facebook is on fire with comments like:

"Wow why couldn't you guys play like THAT when it mattered?"

"Oilers domination!"

"They really took it to the Wild tonight!  Good show boys!"

Is everyone an idiot?  Did they not watch the game?  The Oilers played like crap!  Not any different than against Anaheim, and yet everyone thinks we dominated just because we won.  Come on people.  The chances of them winning after an effort like that next year is exactly 0%  Despite the goal totals.

What I liked about Minnesota is there was no quit from them.  You've got to respect that.  When it became apparent that they would lose, they sent out the bruisers to send a message.  Well done.  I wish the Oilers would do that, and play with that much heart to the bitter end.  Seriously well done.

With all of that, guys were taking runs at Justin Schultz all night.  Where was the push back?  Then guys were hacking Corey Potter.  I realize Mike Brown had a awesome fight right at the start, and got the Oilers fired up,  but where was the push back later on?

How about those Sportsnet announcers?  Corey Potter knocks down Zach Parise, and Parise attempts to cut Potter's leg off with his skate while down.  The Sportsnet announcers promptly talk about how that's a sign of how much a competitor Parise is.  That there is no quit in him.  Are you f***ing kidding me?!!  That's a potentially lethal cut to the leg, man!  In that location on the thigh?  Wow.  That's not a competitor, thats a intent to injure!   And not like a concussion either, it's more like Corey Potter bleeding out behind the net.  This is only different than Erik Karlson, because he didn't actually cut him with his skate.  

Then it seems like the entire Minnesota team went after Corey Potter shortly after, and the Oilers did nothing.  Then after they were awarded a 2 minute 5 on 3, they got , I think 1 shot on net?  Wow.

Look, Oilers, if you're going to have exactly 0 push back physically for the entire game, you could at least make them pay on the scoreboard.  I've had about enough of the "Krueger" way of doing things for the year.  I wish that it was feasible that he could be let go this summer, but since it's not, I'll just cringe for 82 games next year, as the Oilers are not physical in any way, trying to play Kruger's European hockey in the NHL.  It won't work, Krugs.  It won't.  Just watch Hall and Ebs tear it up in the Worlds because their used to that kind of hockey now.  Doesn't help you in the NHL though.  

I say this is Bizarro World, because there is not way on Gretzky's green earth that the Oilers should win this game.   Let alone by such a large margin.   I'm at a loss for words.  Wow.  I'm happy they won, don't get me wrong, the only downside is we slide to 7th overall (so far) in the draft order now.  So that sucks.  But I did love playing spoiler to Minny.  Wouldn't it be just awesome if they got knocked out?  Hilarious!  HA!  I'd love to see Columbus in the playoffs.  

-

A

PLAYER SAFETY

It's time to give hybrid icing a try, for reasons that should be obvious by now.

In the off-season there will be open debate as to what "The Standard" of each penalty is.  There will be numerous videos replayed and debated so that it is clear to everyone exactly what is and what is not a penalty.  This standard will not change, even if it is OT in game 7 of the Finals.  Everyone from refs to players to pundits to fans will be encouraged to get involved in this debate.  And Boom! goes the marketing strategy…

Hard-shelled pads on the elbows and shoulders will be replaced with the softer stuff they used before that.  This is something I totally think Grapes is 100% spot-on about.  Their protective equipment should be armour, but should not be a weapon.  This should reduce concussions somewhat, partly because the player giving the hit doesn't have that hard-shelled pad at the point of impact but also because you can't commit as fully to a check when you know that you're going to feel it, and with the softer pads, you do feel it.  However, it will cause the players to subtly but noticeably… not quite "slow down", but certainly "play with more caution."  Which will also go a long way towards increasing player safety.

PLAYER SPORTSMANSHIP

Referees are no longer allowed to call diving penalties.  Instead, an independent "sportsmanship" panel made up of a blend of respected, retired NHL players, referees and coaches would review questionable plays.  They would vote on the legitimacy of each play by blind ballot.  Each judge could vote Dive, No Dive, or Inconclusive.

If the panel votes Dive, the player misses an amount of games equalling the majority by which he was voted a diver.  Say 6 Dive votes, 3 No Dive votes and 4 Inconclusive = 3 games missed.  Player forfeits any salary he would have made during the period he is banned for.

At the end of the season, the player most often convicted of diving is given a trophy for it at the NHL awards.  The team most often convicted of diving loses their second round draft pick.

If this approach is successful, I would expand it to include review of controversial infractions.

TEAMS TANKING

When teams deliberately try to lose, it waters down the product that the NHL is selling.  To discourage teams from doing what the Oilers have done I would have a financial penalty of sorts for repeated high drafts.  The third year you draft in the top 3 in a row your team has to make double payments into the revenue sharing fund (or recieves nothing from the revenue sharing fund).  The idea here is that you're already getting the cream of the young marquee players – they are marketable and they generate a lot of revenue.  If you need the best young players AND a financial bailout to stay in business… you're in the wrong business and should go get a job doing something you're good at.

COACHES CHALLENGE

Each coach has the option of "challenging" a normally non-reviewable call.  The coach loses his timeout if his challenge is overruled.  Coach cannot challenge more than once per game regardless.

STANDINGS CHANGE

Each game will be worth 3 points.  Regulation win is 3, OT/shootout win is 2, OT loss/shootout loss is 1, regulation loss is 0.  Let's give teams an incentive to play for the win in a tie game with 10 minutes left in the third.  Not only does this combat the artificial parity induced by giving a bunch of loser teams undeserved pity points, it creates a whole bunch of extra drama, particularly in the final dash for the playoffs.  As an added bonus, the roster at the end of the year will more accurately represent the talent level of the teams involved.

CESSATION OF STUPIDITY

Why does the NHL hate money?  Phoenix will be moved to any of Seattle, Quebec City, Hamilton, etc etc etc ASAP.

Why does the NHL hate money?  Ontario will get a second team… but the ownership of the Leafs gets 25% of their stock for free as a concession for dividing their fan base.

Why does the NHL hate money?  The next CBA will be negotiated and agreed upon at least six months before the current one expires.

GROWING THE GAME

The NHL regular season will be reduced to 75 games.  With the extra ~10 days freed up the NHL will do a high profile "Champion's League" style tourney with professional european teams.  The top 5 teams from the NHL, KHL, SEL, etc would all play for the International Awesome Hockey club award.  Each tournament after the first would be hosted in the home country, and using the local rules, of the hockey club who won it last year.  So if a KHL team wins it, next year the whole thing is in Russia and it's by KHL rules with KHL refs.  If the Penguins win it, next year it's in North America and it's by NHL rules with NHL referees.

The NHL teams that aren't in the top 5 will supply the talent pool for the boring, stupid All-Star game.  This Hockey Champion's League will be conducted over the course of the All-Star break (which will be expanded by 5 days on either side).  Maybe a few of the bottom feeding teams can be sent to places like Japan to play a bunch of exhibition games?  It's not like the League can't afford this kind of investment.

…and that's all I got for you today!  Have a thursday and here's hoping that the Oilers can lose with dignity for the rest of the season.  And here's REALLY hoping that the players in our young core don't think we're mad at them!

Why is that?  In regards to his recent pine-warming, Whitney had this to say to Gene Principe: 

I wish I was playing and I disagree with the fact that I’m not.

Seriously?  What qualifies you to be entitled to play in the NHL?  Especially when you're having the kind of season Whitney is having.  Whitney is probably one of the most expensive bottom pairing d-men in the NHL – expected to go back into the top pairing, he's been a massive failure for the club this year, scoring very little and showing that he has lost a step – he should consider himself lucky he hasn't been banished down to OKC.  

If I were Krueger, I would staple Whitney's ass to the bench for the rest of the season, then in private tell him "You just sealed your fate with this team.  If you can't see how much of a massive failure you've been for this team this year, then you wouldn't be saying stuff like that to the media.  You'll have plenty of time to figure it out while you're watching games from the pressbox, though."

Then I'd walk away from him.  

Whitney needs to get his head out of his ass.  He's being paid to do a job, which he's not doing.  If he can't figure out why non-producing players don't get ice time in the NHL, then he shouldn't be playing anywhere at all.  Period. 

Let me start by saying this:  I predict the Oilers will either finish in 13th, where they are now, or move up to 12th since they're only 1 point back of the Flames.  The way I see it, the Oilers should be looking to avenge a loss to Anaheim last night, so I'm thinking they show up for tonight's game and beat Anaheim.  After that, there's no way they beat Chicago – they've caught them on off nights the last 2 years but those were isolated games and the rest of the year I don't recall the Oilers beating the Hawks.  Minnesota they won't get past, either, as they don't seem able to beat the Wild.  Vancouver?  Maybe, they've had the Canucks' number this season and they started off the season beating Vancouver, maybe they can end the season the way they started it.  So that's 4 points we can hope for on the Oilers end that we can control.  The Flames, however, unfortunately are on a winning streak right now and are up against Nashville next, a very beatable team these days.  But honestly, how much longer is the luck of a lineup devoid of many NHL players going to hold up?  In a way, we do actually have motivation to cheer for the Flames to finish above us so it hurts their draft position more.  I guess either way, we win. 

OK, back to the meat and potatoes of my article.  Let's look back at how the Oilers have done: 

The good

Oilers (at least in theory) finish higher in the standings this year

That's improvement, however modest it may be.  Next year it should be playoffs or bust, and rightly so.   

Oilers did a little better on team defense this year

Again, the improvement is very modest, but it's encouraging.  Even with questionable players in some areas, guys playing injured, young guns still learning on the job, we actually did better defensively this year as opposed to last year.  Because of the vast difference in GP, it's better to look at goals against/game when comparing this season and last season.  Last season, the Oilers had an average of 2.91 goals against/game.  This year, that's improved to 2.82 goals against/game.  That's progress.  We can be encouraged by that a little.  Hey, it's better than throwing blunt objects at your TV set, right? 

Mind you, the Oilers have a long ways to go to compete with the top clubs – to put some perspective on this the Presidents' Trophy (likely) winning Chicago Blackhawks have a GA/game of 2.14, so the Oil have a long way to go.  But, it's an encouraging sign. 

Oilers improved on the PK

Last year's %:  82.4.  This year's:  83.6.  That's almost an entire % point better, not too shabby. 

Oilers improved on the PP

Last year:  20.6%.  This year:   21.2%.  Ironically we finished 5th this year as opposed to 3rd last year….I guess that means a couple of teams made more improvement than we did.  

Emergence of Magnus Paajarvi

Magnus Paajarvi was in and out of the lineup for a good portion of this year, because his contract was favorable to the team – able to call him up and send him down to OKC to cover their butts on roster numbers.  But with about 20 games to go, he'd emerge to fill a hole desperately needed on LW depth for the Oilers.  Prior to Paajarvi's emergence, our LW depth was lacking pretty badly after Taylor Hall.  Now Paajarvi also adds some size to the 2nd line, as neither Hemsky nor Yakupov, the 2 guys who will be fighting it out on RW, nor Gagner the center are big enough to handle physical play.  Paajarvi has hit and blocked shots for the club this year, though he's not particularly oriented towards being physical.  He's also on the positive side of the ledger for turnovers, that's good.  

No doubt when the season is done, Krueger will tell him to play more physical in addition to picking up his scoring.  The future is bright for this 22 year old in Oiler silks.  

Improvement of Lennart Petrell 5-on-5

Lennart Petrell in his rookie season proved he's capable on the PK but his play 5 on 5 was lacking.  Well, with an improved +/- this year, he's picked it up.  His offense regressed in terms of his goal scoring, but his point total remained the same and with more games in the season next year, look for his offensive numbers to improve.  He may still be dealt if the clubs feels it can upgrade his roster spot, but for now he has helped to solidify the LW depth even more.  Now at least the club can say it's competitive on the left side, it couldn't say that last year.  

Improved defensive play of Corey Potter   

Potter has sat for long periods this year due to the excess of d-men, so our sample size is limited, but according to both traditional +/- and advanced stats, Potter has improved.  He was -16 last year but this year is +4, which is great improvement and may even bump him up to a #5 or #6 spot instead of the #7 spot. 

Progress of prospects Anton Lander and Toni Rajala

Lander may have played himself onto the roster next year based on his head-turning play in OKC, while Rajala may have earned himself another contract with the organization – but the knock against him is he is a small forward….Oilers may sign him for depth then deal him for something next year. 

Justin Schultz and Nail Yakupov

Both players have come as advertised, and both are candidates for the Calder trophy as rookie of the year.  Has an Oiler ever won anything at the NHL awards ever?  Not that I can recall.  Once they can both get used to the NHL workload (they both look like they've hit a wall lately) and get more experience then LOOK OUT!!!!  And it's not just their offense, either, both play superior defense for their brief levels of NHL experience.  Justin Schultz only played about half the year in the AHL but was STILL named AHL defencemen of the year.  That's a hell of an accomplishment.     

Devan Dubnyk answers the call

The guy still isn't 100% consistent, but he's shown he's a legit starter.  Even if he's not elite level, that's OK – we can't fit elite players in every position under the salary cap.  The point is, we were finally able to stop playing Nikolai Khabibulin so much, and the latter did much better in a backup role.  He's not perfect, still lets in a few bad goals we'd like to have back, but he's a legit starter for the Oilers this year.  There were question marks surrounding our goalies at the beginning of the year that don't exist at the end.  At one point, Dubnyk was actually in the top 10 in the league in both GAA and SV%, and he's at least in the top half of both stats to end the year.   

Mark Fistric

Has proven an upgrade on Theo Peckham, who to be fair didn't exactly set the bar too high to begin with this season. 

Mike Brown

Has proven an upgrade on Ben Eager, who again didn't exactly set the bar too high to begin with.  Top 6 forwards have said they feel safer with him in the lineup.   

The emergence of Sam Gagner

Was the Oilers' leading scorer for a long time until Taylor Hall found his groove and moved past him.  Is producing offence at a rate of 0.80 points per game, where he's always hovered around 0.60 in the past.  This could be a turning point for him.  In previous seasons people were always asking if he could move beyond the 50 point barrier – in a full season next year he likely will, as his PPG number translates into 65 points in a full 82 game season.  The draft will likely determine his future with the Oilers.      

More size and physicality than in years' past

The acquisitions of Fistric and Brown, as well as the emergence of Paajarvi give the Oilers more size and physicality in the lineup.  Hartikainen will likely nab a regular spot next year, so this only gets better.  MacT will also likely bring in 1 guy via free agency that has size and can play physical, maybe even chipping in some secondary offense too, and that will help.   

The bad

A quiet trade deadline

I've written an entire blog about this already, so I won't write anymore.  But, missed opportunity on a lot of guys we'll now lose for nothing, even if we wouldn't have gotten much for them before.  Bad idea.  

The regression of Ryan Smyth

Smytty is on his last legs, and if he gets into the lineup again anytime in the next 4 games he may have to face the possibility his career is over.  He's lost a step – but at 37 there's no shame in that, happens to most professional athletes.  Still, with Hartikainen nipping at his heels for a roster spot, and a new GM that's clamoring for change, you have to wonder how much longer Smytty will be an Oiler.  He may be asked to retire, or be bought out.  Tough decisions….this one will test MacT to see if he practices what he preaches. 

The regression of Shawn Horcoff

Horcoff is starting to slow down now, just like Smyth.  He's still able to contribute – he's not as bad as Smyth is right now, but I get the feeling the team would like to move on from him, and especially have the opportunity to rid themselves of his horrible contract.  Good candidate for a compliance buyout.   

Mark Fistric

He's made some defensive mistakes that have cost the team at times. 

Mike Brown

See Mark Fistric. 

Lack of secondary scoring

This is a combined fault of the bottom 6 forwards, 2nd line at times, and some defensemen.  We need to balance our attack if we hope to win a Stanley.  

Slight regression on offense

Oilers went from scoring 2.59 goals/game on average last year to 2.52 goals/game on average this year.  Not exactly earth shattering but it's bad news.  

Ales Hemsky

Has played both injured and disinterested at times this year.  Battled a lot of injuries even before being done for the season due to foot issues.  With Nail Yakupov waiting in the wings as his replacement, his $5 million a year contract, and his reduced boxcars this might actually be the year he gets dealt away, either as part of a package or by himself.  Could be dealt for help on D.  

Lack of faceoff ability in top 6 centers

I'm hoping next year with a longer season and more practice time both players will show real improvement.  Gagner appeared to be knocking on the door last year when he finished his faceoffs at 47%, but this year he's at 43%, so he regressed.  Nuge actually improved to 41% from 37% last year, but it's not enough – and if the Oilers hope to get better at puck possession, they'll need both their top 6 centers to be above 50% on the season.  Gagner in particular is a bit of an enigma in this area – he's a 6 year NHL veteran yet has never cracked the 50% barrier, which is confounding.  I sincerely hope that in a real 82 game season with more practice time, Gagner and Nuge are charged with improving in the faceoff circle.  It'll be critical to the team's success going forward.  

The regression of Jeff Petry

Petry broke out offensively last year, but has largely regressed this year (offensively) despite improved defensive play.  It's easy to forget he's only 25 years old and in his 3rd year in the NHL….in a full season we'll likely see him rebound to last year's numbers. 

The ugly

Eric Belanger – sucks

A massive failure as a player except inside the faceoff circle, both his regression as a player and injury issues necessitated the acquisition of Jerred Smithson at the deadline.   Leaks scoring chances against at even strength, secondary scoring ability present on other teams earlier in his career has disappeared, and his time on special teams has been way down from last year.  Will likely be bought out at the end of the season. 

Ryan Jones – sucks

In and out of the lineup all season long, Ryan Jones was at one time the lone bright light in the Oilers' bottom 6….no more.  Ever since an eye injury suffered during the lockout, he just hasn't been the same player.  The past 2 seasons he's flirted with the 20 goal mark playing with non-offensive teammates, this year he has a whopping 2 goals in much more limited action.  Likely not to be re-signed as he's a UFA. 

Ben Eager – banished to OKC

Ben Eager was banished to Oklahoma City in mid-season, because he just hadn't done his job.  Supposed to be a pest, PKer and enforcer who stuck up for his teammates, he leaked scoring chances against and never seemed to perform his role.  Will likely be bought out at the end of the season. 

Darcy Hordichuk – banished to OKC

Hordichuk's icetime averaged around 2 minutes a game – and that was when he actually dressed for a game.  After being ineffective in the ice time he did get and being a defensive liability who couldn't do anything other than fight, he was banished to OKC.  Will be cut loose on July 1 as he is a UFA.  

Ryan Whitney – sucked

Ryan Whitney was probably the biggest problem on the Oilers this season – he was supposed to answer the bell and re-establish himself as a top defender, and instead what we got was more of last year except worse – leaking scoring chances against, slower, and boxcars almost cut in half from last year.  Injuries have taken their toll on him.  Unlikely he'll be re-signed by the club next year, and we missed the opportunity to salvage something for him at the trade deadline. 

Theo Peckham

http://youtu.be/y25stK5ymlA

Watching that YouTube video says it all with Peckham – "Wreck-um Peckham" isn't the same guy that grabbed a 2nd pairing spot after 2011 with physical play and secondary scoring to boot.  He only played a whopping 4 games for the club this year, and was injured or sitting in the pressbox the rest of the year – even when the team is on a losing streak, which is a huge tell.  Likely won't be tendered a qualifying offer so will be set free as a UFA. 

DISCLAIMER:The rant to follow is only somewhat hockey-related and Your Mileage May Vary.  I inserted a break so you can just skip to the hockey part if you want to.

I don't love a business.  I don't love or respect businessmen in general – they're (generally) Lawful Neutral (or worse) and are firmly convinced that if they can legally aquire it, they totally earned it.  They bribe our governments to give them subsidies, tax cuts and handouts while they're making huge profits, then they turn around and slash wages and move jobs out of the country.  And when the tax man comes to the door, Lord, the house looks like a rubbage sale.

Ryan Smyth, I'm not talking about you.  Take a seat and have a beer; you're the exception that proves the rule.  However, the token charity efforts made by businessmen in general, and the NHL/NHLPA in particular, are generally laughable.  It is consistently and quantifiably true that people living on "lower class" incomes are more charitable, both in the percentage of their wealth that they freely give, and in the absolute amount of wealth given by the poor compared to that donated by the rich.  Oh, poor people are also a lot less likely to profit from "charitable" donations via tax deductions and good PR.  Rich people are generally incapable of "giving something back" without leveraging it into present and/or future gain.

I started watching hockey when I was too young to understand about the distinction between an "athelete" and a "hero", or a "sportsman" and a "bussinessman".  I no longer have that excuse.  The NHLPA's role in the last bogus lockout (and yes, in my mind that lockout will always be "The Bogus Lockout" because it was manufactured by two groups of undeservedly successful people squabbling over who was gonna get 51% and who was gonna get 49%) really reminded me of all the reasons that I disrespect and dislike professional atheletes.

As a man who is outnumbered by his grandparents, I have reluctantly had to accept the fact that my vote doesn't matter, and it isn't going to matter for at least another 10 years (likely 15).  I have taken consolation in the fact that my dollar does matter, as does my choice of to whom I give my labour and my talents.  I am unusual for a Canadian in that I am willing to judge someone morally for how they make their money, how they spend their money, and who they give their money to.

And I feel like the world's biggest moron and hypocrite.  I put all those nice-sounding words together… then turn around and follow the Edmonton Oilers!  Holy crap I'm stupid sometimes.

Anyways, now that I've got that rant of my chest (not for the first time), here are some random thoughts that occured to me while I was researching Kevin Lowe.  You'd probably rather read about hockey than my frustrations with The Way The World Is.

____________________________________________________________________

First and most obviously, the entire hockey world is pointing at us and laughing.  Again.  Because of the conduct of one Kevin Lowe.  Again.  Mr. Katz, your money is yours to do with as you please.  If you want to pay Kevin Lowe to hang out with you, I couldn't care less.  But keep him the —- away from my Goddamn hockey team!

Perhaps the most interesting, and certainly most confusing, quote I found is the following from MacTavish: (I was) "never really under the illusion that we were a team that could put together that stretch (to make the playoffs)…"

OK MacT, where the hell was your genius input when it counted?  Were you in the room when the 4th rounder was traded for Smithson?  Why didn't you kick Tambi in the balls and make him sell useless vets for draft picks?  What the hell was your job, anyway?  What, exactly, was your role in the trade deadline fu….. ahem.  …failure?  Argh, I actually like MacTavish, but what the Hell am I supposed to read into this quote?  If you knew better, why didn't you do better?  Yeah, Tambi was the GM, rah bah bah… you expect me to believe that you and Lowe couldn't have overruled him?  Grrrrrrr frustrating.

Wow.  So I hadn't known this but apparently there was a deal in place way back when to move Comrie to Anaheim for Corey Perry and a first round pick.  Then Lowe demanded Comrie pay back 2.5M in bonuses and the deal fell apart, so Comrie ended up being traded to Philly for Woywitka and the picks that became Rob Schremp and Danny Syvet.  Holy crap I wish he had made that first trade instead!  Anyways, seems I'm quite safe in saying that Lowe's temper really made things worse with Mike Comrie.  And then there's Smytty.

Who will ever forget, or forgive, Lowe trading Smytty over a few hundred grand, then spending millions upgrading the dressing room that very offseason?  Totally unforgivable; both from an ethical viewpoint and from a practical viewpoint.  "Durrrrrr, after being a cheap sonofabitch with the fan favourite, team captain and best player after he's given us numerous hometown discounts, I'm going to raise team morale by showing just how much money we're willing to spend on them!  If anyone needs me, there's a particularly sexy doorknob over here that I'm gonna be humping…"

Oh God, then I came across this gem: "I would say that maybe if I had been a little less business-like in the Ryan Smyth deal [to the Islanders and allowed myself to] bring the feelings into the whole thing a little more, that it’s unlikely things would have ended that way."**

Are you listening to yourself?  You're trying to tell me that you thought that trade was in the best interest of the team???  You cheeky sonofabitch – you cannot possibly be fired soon enough!  Fact is, you traded Smyth because you had your dander up and figured, "I'll show him!"  That move haunted the club for, what, 6 years?  In some ways we're still paying for it!  Holy revisionist history, Batman!

I couldn't help but notice that about 60% of the articles that reference Khabibulin also reference his drunk driving conviction.  Yeah, like there's no culture of "have a few brews and hop in the ol' pickup" here in AB.  Hypocrisy, thy name is Alberta…

Incidentally, it's not just Peter "Assclown" Adler trying to convince us that the Oilers' woes are Pronger's fault – here's a quote from Terry Jones of the (ugh) Edmonton Sun: "People forget that Lowe, Howson and MacTavish made all the right moves to get the Oilers to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final in 2006 and forget that Mr. & Mrs. Chris Pronger became the real reasons it all unraveled."* 

Really?  We're reduced to publicly slandering Pronger's WIFE?  That's the direction we're going to take this?  Disgusting.  Shameful.  Pathetic.  Contemptible.  About what I have come to expect from the Sun.  For whatever it's worth, Mrs. Pronger, I'd like to apologize on behalf of all the Oilers fans who aren't idiotic spiteful buck-dodging fawning sycophantic assholes.

Ugh, crap.  No more blogging for me until I'm feeling less angry and disillusioned.  No, wait… one last parting shot.

Hey Kevin Lowe!  In Edmonton we have two types of GMs – those who win, and those who fail abysmally 99% of the time while coasting on irrelevant accomplishments that happened 20+ years ago while they were riding Gretzky/Messier's coat-tails.  Guess which tier you are?

*Yes, this actually happened, and very recently, too. http://www.edmontonsun.com/2013/04/17/edmonton-oilers-president-of-hockey-operations-kevin-lowe-should-have-explained-his-comments-about-fans

**http://oilersnation.com/2012/4/27/kevin-lowe-its-a-business-first

Well, here we go again.

News broke earlier today, that Ryan Nugent Hopkins will miss the rest of the season to undergo shoulder surgery.  

All I can say is, it's about *expletive deleted* time!

There isn't a single person, fan, player, coach, GM, owner, anybody who didn't see this coming.  We all knew Nuge had shoulder issues.  We've known since last year.  

I seem to recall him getting an impromptu checkup before the World Juniors as well.  

In a lockout shortened season, the second it became apparent that he needed surgery, which by my eye was about the 4th game of the season, he should have been shut down.

Better to lose him for this year, and give him ample time to heal and rehab in the summer, than lose him for most likely the first 2 months of next year.

But knowing the groundbreaking, genius decisions made by Oilers management, he'll probably be back for the start of next year.  This is a mistake, in my opinion.

In typical Oilers fashion, RNH will be rushed back into action, and as a result with not be 100%.  I really really do believe that if there wasn't a lockout this year, Taylor Hall would have been rushed back too.  Thank Gretzky that didn't happen!

They will rush him back next year, because who else to they have to replace him, even temporarily?  Gagner?  Horc?  Lander?  

The complete ineptitude of management  to acquire a stop gap, will result in Nuge playing

games in October.  To be fair, how do you replace a #1 center like Nuge?  Most likely you promote from within, and aquire a stop gap for the bottom 6.  Or you swap Gagner/Hemsky +picks etc. for a legit #2 center to fill the void.  Or you just stick Gagner on the top line for now.  Promote from within and aquire for the bottom 6.

I know Mac T is at the helm now, and maybe we should give him a chance before we slag his abilities.  I say, prove me wrong, Mac T.  Prove to me Kevin Lowe has no say in decisions by making some smart ones.  I haven't seen or read about somebody so hated in Edmonton since the Katz to Seattle debacle.  Or Mr. Puck.  For the good of the Oilers organization, he should resign.  Just for good PR.  Nobody in the league will take this team seriously until the president of the "No non-Oilers-allowed club is gone.   Maybe once that happens, Oilers management won't be the laughingstock of the entire league.  Hey, its a start.

Did you all see the game tonight?  So far its 3-1 Ducks as of this writing.  Gross, but expected.  I said they'd take 1 of these games on this homestand.  So don't make me look like a fool, OIlers, and come out flying tomorrow.

Oh, boy, is Nuge missed on the powerplay.  Nothing going on it tonight.  Even with the freebie from Koivu in the box.  I think Nick Schultz should have gone too.  What did I miss there?  

Justin Schultz had a few flubs tonight.  A couple giveaways.  But so did Taylor Hall who despite a strong showing turned it over in the neutral zone quite a few times tonight.  

The Calgary Flames are now ahead of us in the standings.  It's enough to make you want to cry.  The Oilers have a game in hand, so who knows how this ends up at the end of the year.  Imagine.  Us.  The Oilers.  Picking higher than the depleted, sad, demoralized Calgary Flames this year.  That's saying something.

So should Krueger be on the block?  If the Oilers go 0 and 4 over the next 4, and the Flames keep winning, we will end up well below them.  How does Bob Hartley do more with 1/4 of the talent than Krueger?  Is he pushing a system that just isn't working?  Does he refuse to accept that his system doesn't work?  There's too much pressure on the Centers.  Despite Nuge's defensive acumen, its a lot to put on a 2nd year player.  That kind of defensive responsibility.  

I've said this before, but I don't think Krugs is the man for the job.  Maybe his system would work in Minnesota, or LA.  Where they have strong centermen.  Maybe we should just give him a chance for another year, to let the system work, and the players buy into it.

I'm incredibly sad, frustrated and demoralized myself, thinking about the next 6 months of waiting for next year, and for the next 2 months reading about the draft.  Who should the Oilers take?  I'm sick of reading about the draft.  I wish I didn't care about the draft.  I wish, that, come draft time, I didn't even know who the top prospects were.  I wish that I could just be certain that the Oil took the BPA at 25th overall or so, and that was that.  

Ahhh dreams.  One day…..  

Everyone and their dog knows that the Oilers are in a rebuild.  This, combined with the shortened season and the deep draft, means that from day one my PR message would have been "I totes swear to God that this is the last year of tanking, for reals!  Next year it's playoffs or fire me!  This year… Rexall beers are half price cause you're gonna need them to watch the hockey we'll play.  Also, anyone who buys six tickets will be given a free jersey.  We're sorry that it has come to this but we PROMISE this is the last time!"

The very first thing I would have done is send the Nuge for surgery.  Playing our hopefully-future-franchise center injured in a season that meant nothing was six kinds of stupid.  And, with that one move, it would become totally obvious to everyone that this season is about the future.  After that would have been a serious behind the scenes sitdown with Hall explaining why he needs to be patient for just one more year, then a sitdown with all the young core explaining the same.  With the team on board and expectations clearly set (we suck this year but if we don't make the playoffs next year I get fired) I can afford to more-or-less ignore fan opinion.

Player opinion is another matter.  I would be working incessantly to make Edmonton the best place to play in the League with the happiest players.  I would disband the Octane because cheerleaders in hockey are stupid and the fact that the Oilers have them is embarassing.  I would shut down Oil Change because I wouldn't need propoganda to keep my job – I would either perform or get fired.

The next thing would have been shopping the hell out of Hemsky.  I would have done with him what Vancouver claims they were doing with Hodgson (*points* HA-ha!) – sheltered him and given him lots of chances to show how great he is.  Having Nuge down would seriously expose our lack of depth at C, which would be "addressed" in the short term by trading nothing of consequence for someone who can win a few faceoffs, be defensively responsible, and play 10 minutes nightly.  In the long term this problem would be addressed at the draft when I'd take the biggest and best center available, even if we ended up drafting #1 overall.  I would accept a reduced return on Hemsky if necessary to get rid of his 5M cap hit and his inconsistent level of compete. 

I would be looking to get Hartikainen, Lander and Paajarvi some quality minutes, but I would try hard to put them in positions where they'd be likely to succeed.  Playing Harti in the minors would be incredibly stupid; the team needs his size right now and he needs the chance to get his NHL legs under him before the games matter.

I would be trying like hell to move established veterans for prospects and picks.  Horcoff would have been dealt before the start of the season to a team trying to make the cap floor if at all possible – I want to get rid of all the veterans with entitlement issues because this team belongs to the wunderkids.  If I couldn't trade him I wouldn't buy him out until the end of the season – we are just too shallow at C.  But I'd buy him out if I had to fistfight MacTavish to do it!

At the trade deadline it is all but certain we would already be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but even if we were in playoff contention I would have sold whatever veterans were left for whatever picks/prospects I could get, even if the fans were burning me in effigy!  …and they might.

In short, this year we would have watched lots of ugly hockey, but that ugliness would be tempered somewhat by the emergence of the wunderkids and the gradual emergence of an actual supporting cast (Smid, Petry, Schultz, Harti, MPS, Dubnyk).  It would be frustrating for the fans to watch more losing hockey, but at least the organization would be clear and honest with them and they would (hopefully) feel like the payoff will be worth the pain.

At the draft I'd draft the closest thing available to Mark Messier with our top 3 pick (and it would *certainly* be in the top 3).  I would use our 2nd rounder on the best goalie available, then I would draft the best player available every round thereafter, even if they are all speedy, undersized forwards.

In the off-season I would be trying to bundle some of these surplus players together into a package that would get us a genuine power forward in his prime.  I would start the package with next year's #1 pick (a clear sign to the wunderkids that we are now serious about winning) and 2 prospects of the "small, speedy forward" variety and be expecting to moderately overpay.  There is no way I expect to get a Lucic, but there is no reason I couldn't get a Clowe, either.  I think there's a good chance I could get great trade value for the 2014 #1 pick though – something about blowing donkeys for 8 years gets other teams to expect you to continue to suck.

I would make a point of having at least 5M (prefereably 8M) in cap space after all my players are resigned because with the salary cap dropping there is a great opportunity to get UFAs dirt cheap, particularly since everyone and their dog will know that the Oilers will be trying everything they possibly can to win from now on (or else the GM gets fired).

I like Dubie as our starter going forward so I'm not interested in another goaltender.  A backup will be needed but we'll just budget 1.5M to any keeper who can give us 20-30 quality starts.  This keeper will under no circumstances be named Nikolai, or Khabibulan, nor will his nickname be a reference to a Cold War era obstacle.  It sets a bad precedent to reward people for failing!

I would have a serious sitdown with Ryan Smyth.  Hockey franchises only rarely get the kind of service from a player that we have had from Smyth and it is very important to the franchise and to the fan base that we maintain good relations with Smytty.  That being said, he is too slow to play in the NHL.  Would he rather be bought out then hired on as, say, a coach's assistant specializing in teaching our young 'uns how to play the dirty game?  Would he rather be swapped to a contender one last time?  How can we get him off the ice honourably?  Worst case scenario, I would keep him on for the last year of his contract on the 4th line and/or as the 13th forward.

I would explore the market for D-men – it might be possible to leverage, say, Smid + a couple of good prospects we don't need (too many small skilled forwards and D prospects) for a legitimate #1 shutdown guy.  Going into next season, my roster would likely look something like this:

HALL./NUGE/EBERLE

SOMEONE/GAGNER/YAKUPOV

MPS/SOMEONE/HARTIKAINEN

NOBODY/NOBODY/NOBODY

SMYTH (or somebody)

JSCHULTZ/NSCHULTZ

SMID (or his replacement)/PETRY

SOMEONE/SOMEONE

POTTER

DUBNYK

SOMEONE

You will note I drafted a huge and skilled C yet kept Gagner.  Three reasons: Gagner is, as a man, exactly the kind of person I want on my team; Gagner is, as a player, one of the best offensive 2Cs in the league and I want 3 scoring lines because that really matters in the playoffs.  There would be some tough negotiations with Gagner because I'd need to find out how much he's willing to leave on the table.  He could get 5M on the open market but I'd be wanting him to sign for 4 years at 4M (I'd offer him 4Y/3.5M with a NMC and would be thrilled if he took it).  I'd compromise at 4.5 if I had to, any more than that and he gets signed then moved at/before the trade deadline.  Another tack I would try is a 1 year, 5.5M deal with a gentleman's agreement that he resigns with us for 4 years ar 3.5M.  Worth a shot.

I would work a lot with MacTavish on developing the 4th line and the bottom pairing.  We have no forward prospects (except Lander) who we can expect to be NHL ready next year and even Lander is questionable.  Still, depth players will be available as UFAs dirt cheap and if I can't get 2 good 4th liners and a 3rd pairing Dman on the UFA market, I'll eat my hypothetical GM hat.  That leaves one or two forwards to trade for (gonna need some depth) and a 3rd pairing D-man.  

The 3C spot will be filled by our draft pick.  The 2L spot will be filled by the power forward I spoke of dealing for earlier.  If Klefbom and/or Lander are ready they will step into the NHL, but they will start the season in the AHL and will not taste the big league until they earn it.  The backup goaltender will be largely inconsequential.  Any remaining roster holes will be filled either by UFA signings (contrary to the "expertise" of one PJ Stock, the lowering of the cap combined with all the up-arrows in Edmonton will make it pretty easy to get UFAs) or by overpaying on the trade market.  We will be able to afford to overpay because we will have taken the BPA every round instead of tilting at windmills with Mitch Moroz style draft picks.

At the trade deadline I would be willing to deal next year's #1 pick as well as pretty much any non-blue chip prospect for the exact player we need.  Then the Oilers would either go on to claim a playoff spot or I would go on to claim EI.

Wow, that was absurdly longwinded.  To make a long story short, I would be very serious about losing this year, and very serious about winning next year.  What say you, Oilogosphere?  Should I send Katz my resume?  Or do you want to break all my bones just to make damn sure I never get anywhere near the Oilers in any alternate reality?

Man, Adler must be getting BJs from Kevin Lowe.  This is the only explanation I can come up with for why he keeps feeling the need to defend him. 

In his "part 2" article, I can't even quote the thing piece by piece because it's all stupid. 

He starts by giving Kevin Lowe credit for the Pronger trade.  Really?  Wow.  At the time, St. Louis was having ownership problems.  Let's see now….Edmonton's ownership was stable, St. Louis's was not, and St. Louis possesses the best defenceman in the league at the time…it's not exactly rocket science (or as Ricky from Trailer Park Boys calls it, "Rocket Appliances").  Oilers fans should be familiar with this more than anyone, as the LA Kings and the New York Rangers did it to us from 1989 to the early 90s.  Because at the time it was US who having ownership problems, while the ownership of the aforementioned opposition teams were not.  Why do you think the Rangers won the cup in '94?  It wasn't because of their homegrown prospects (give or take a Brian Leetch and Mike Richter or 2), we know that.  It was because they poached the bulk of the dynasty Oilers one by one.  Does Neil Smith deserve a reputation as a schrewd GM because of it?  Hardly.  Just like Kevin Lowe doesn't deserve much credit for Chris Pronger when the shoe was on the other foot. 

So the plan didn't work out, and so Kevin Lowe admitted it.  So what?  No one blamed Lowe for Pronger's trade request anyway, so Adler is creating some kind of conspiracy against Lowe that didn't exist at the time.  Lowe's admission it didn't work out is pretty meaningless….pretty easy to admit a mistake you didn't make, after all.   

OK, now I was wrong and I'll post 1 stupid part of this article: 

Experts agree to rebuild a team from the bottom all the way up usually takes about five years. Not five seasons. Five years. We’re now in year three of the current Oil Change.

What experts are you speaking of, Adler?  The fact is, there is no textbook way to do a rebuild.  Pittsburgh did it in 3 years, largely because they were able to nab Crosby, Malkin, and Fleury in net.  With Crosby and Malkin you can pretty much put any winger next to them and they'll produce.  That's a winning combo. 

On the other side of the equation, the New York Islanders have been sucking, for what, the better part of a decade, and barring some sort of disaster over the next 3 games for them, they'll be in the playoffs in the east for the first time in many years. 

The Oilers have some good pieces but right now they're about to miss the playoffs again from seasons since before the rebuild started.  They've got a good core but still have holes in their lineup and they haven't even made the playoffs yet.  Let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

Adler then goes on to say that people in Edmonton can't hear the truth….but what he fails to realize is that it's not that Oiler fans can't hear the truth, it's that we call bullshit when we see it and don't accept the truth as spoon fed to us by it's public faces, including Lowe.  

Adler then seems to insinuate that it's childish to question Kevin Lowe.  Well, buddy, here's a couple of pictures for you that are worth 1000 words:

That is all. 

Oh, to be in the Upper Tier.  To step boldly into Rexall knowing that your seats are reserved.  To be (apparently) consulted by management on the course the team should take.  To know that your loyalty and money is respected, valued and appreciated.  I can only dream…

Life is hard down in the second tier.  If we're lucky we get to see one or two games in person – I can only imagine what will happen to ticket prices in Edmonton if/when we start winning.  We spend most of the games shouting at the TV and most of the nights after the games crying into our beers.  We constantly have our noses rubbed in the fact that your average Oilers fan would do a clearly better job than the clowns running the team.  Again and again we watch people being hired because they are friends with the owner/management.  We just had a bogus lockout to remind us that NHL players are just another type of suit-wearing, briefcase-packing money-grubbing businessmen.  We just missed a wonderful opportunity at the trade deadline to move players who will be gone next year anyway, make it more likely we'll draft higher this year, and get some extra draft picks in a very deep draft year to replenish our woeful prospect depth.  We are forced to look at the roster and the prospect pipeline and realize that even next year, the playoffs are a long shot.  If Job was a hockey fan, he'd be wearing Copper and Blue.

Much has been made over whether Lowe should be listening to season ticket holders.  I'm down here in the second tier so I can't say for sure, but it seems to me that they've put much more effort into talking than listening, if you catch my drift.  Now, to be fair, Lowe only made the "two-tier" comment in moment of stress and he promptly apologized for it.  However, it is my opinion that in that moment of stress he spoke the truth as he saw it even though it was a mistake to do so.  The Edmonton management operates behind an impenetrable cloak of secrecy, and people don't hide unless they have something to hide – IMO, contempt for the average fan is the least of what they're hiding (along with wilfull incompetence and lack of concern with failure).

Also, I've been bothered by something.  It seems to me (and many others) that Craig MacTavish is the only one of the old boys club who actually seems qualified for his job.  So, if this is the case, where the hell was MacT at the deadline?  If he's willing to make the "tough decisions"… he sure missed a great chance to do so!  Don't get me wrong, I think MacT was the best coach the Oilers have had since Ron Lowe and was in particular the perfect man to coach the '06 team.  However, I can't say the Oilers management got noticeably more savvy when they hired him in the off-season.  Instead of signing guys who just aren't good enough to fill the roles they are given, they're trading mid-range draft picks for the same.  Which is actually even stupider.  At least Cam Barker didn't cost us a freakin draft pick!

Oh yeah, we played hockey last night.  And won.  Dammit!  I am so sick and tired of wanting my team to lose every remaining game of the season so they'll draft higher.  Yet that is clearly the only reasonable course of action for the remainder of the year.  Again.  I am also sick and tired of knowing that the problem with our team is the management.  We could trade Penner; we could waive then buyout Souray… how the hell are we going to get rid of Lowe and Co when they're BFFs with Katz?

I wish I could talk to you about the players, but they are frankly irrelevant for the rest of the season.  I wish I could talk to you about the games, but they don't matter except that they should all be lost.  I have thought long and hard about how to be positive without being dishonest, so here goes…

Last season, I was pretty sure the Oilers management were the most corrupt, dishonest and incompetent clowns in the NHL.  This season, I'm positive that they are.

Totally awesome picture taken from http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/04/17/edmonton-oilers-hockey-boss-kevin-lowe-apologizes-to-fans/

Let's go through some of my favorite quotes from this article: 

He was announcing that Steve Tambellini took the fall for the club and Craig MacTavish was replacing him as the team’s general manager. Perception being what it is, a number of fans took the Oilers to task: here we go again, it’s the same old boys’ club that has been ruining the club all along.

That's fair, and probably the only intelligent thing Adler said in his entire article. 

Even to the degree that the majority of them change their descriptions of their favourite team based on the most recent results. The Oilers win, and so far as the fans are concerned, “We won.” The Oilers lose and the fans’ view changes drastically: “Those lazy bums (insert any other insults here if you wish) have lost again.”

Really Adler?  You really think Oilers fans fall into these 2 categories and these 2 categories only?  Idiot.  Moron.  Dumbass.  Some Oiler fans may be this bipolar (most of these are from Saskatchewan, I think, and are also Rider fans – and yes that's a joke), but most of us are not.  Most of us don't paint the entire team with the same brush, and realize that results and effort level varies from player to player and from game to game, and also that sometimes the team can win games they don't deserve to, and lose games they deserve to win.  This is a wrong and unfair generalization of Oilers' fans, and is overly simplistic.  It's ironic that Adler can't see his own hypocrisy in painting Oilers' fans with a very general brush, yet he criticizes Oiler fans for having the same view of Kevin Lowe. 

Some of the questions during the Monday news conference bordered on attacking Kevin Lowe’s intelligence and integrity. One wonders how many of his critics would not get hot around THEIR collars if they were forced to face (and answer) questions based not on knowledge of the issues at hand but, rather, on the not so perfectly informed public sentiments.

How was Kevin Lowe personally attacked, in any way?  I watched his live press conference up until the feed on the Oilers website died, and not a single reporter in the room asked a question that could be construed as a personal attack, like "How can you be the Oilers' president when you can't even fix your own baldness problem?" or something like that.  That is a personal attack.  I believe Adler is referring to John Mackinnon's question of "How can the same people who got the team into this mess be expected to get us out of it?"  That's a fair question, and one in which he was asking about Lowe's ability to do his job given his poor job performance in the past.  That was not a personal attack in the slightest, he was merely stating a fact and questioning at the same time.  It's completely valid. 

And you know what?  In most jobs, people have to answer for past poor job performance to superiors, in fact they're given much less time and leeway than Kevin Lowe has had with the Oilers.  The only difference between Kevin Lowe's executive position and anyone else's is Kevin Lowe's is more high profile.  But his paying customers deserve a chance to ask these questions, and since the press has the access and many paying customers of the Oilers are also paying customers in the press, and so on behalf of the paying customers of both groups the media SHOULD be holding the team accountable – we need MORE of these questions, not less. 

Adler's complaint reminds of George's Bush Jr's monumentally stupid quote of "It's unpatriotic to question the government."  In fact, the opposite is true, it's VERY patriotic to question the government because they are accountable to us, and the same holds true for paying customers of a sports team.  If the team performs poorly, they should have to answer some tough questions.  Adler should quit whining and get his head back in reality. 

If you asked, say, a hundred thousand people how they would define the current situation the Oilers are in, you can bet your last dime that you’d get at least fifty thousand different opinions. And yet, only one of those opinions would be based on facts as they exist, and in the context as it exists. It’s irrelevant whether the person who answered factually did so because s/he knew all the facts and was capable of putting them in context (of time, place, economics, you name it) or simply because s/he got lucky. What matters is that the rest of the opinions were based on misconceptions, lack of knowledge and bias.

Who the fuck are you, Adler, to say people's opinions aren't based on fact?  Here's a fact you seem to be conveniently ignoring:  the Oilers have been out of the playoffs for 6 years, and are about to make it 7.  Fans are getting tired of losing, and though most reporters won't come out and say it they have to think it's made their jobs masochistic to report on a team that chronically loses, so they're naturally a little grumpy, too.  Now I don't think the Oilers are as bad as their place in the standings, this is not my personal opinion, I'm just trying to make a point.  People have a right to be mad at the folks running the Oilers, because paying customers have a right to demand results, and when they don't get them, they deserve to ask some tough questions.  If Kevin Lowe gets a little mad, who cares?  Ticket prices go up and up and up and up yet the fans aren't treated to the type of entertainment they paid for.  I don't share the most pessimistic view of the Oilers, but I don't begrudge those who do.  They have a right to be mad, and Adler is just clueless and ignorant standing up for Lowe here.  

And yes, it doesn’t really matter why the majority of fans do not come to the games. At least, in this context, it doesn’t matter one iota.

Except it does matter.  Because even a fan base as loyal as Oiler fans have a breaking point.  We won't put up with losing forever, and people are tired of the dramatics of the team's ownership.  Pocklington made a lot of enemies in this town with his threat to move the team, to the point where when Katz tried it (less directly, but nonetheless the threat was there) people basically told him F-U, go ahead and move and one of the struggling US teams will be clamoring to move here and inherit the profit margins of the Oilers.  We were already tired of the drama when Pocklington was done with it.  Oiler fans are not Leaf fans.  We won't just keep shelling out money for a losing product, and Oiler fans know exactly what the economic picture of the NHL is today.  We're one of the most profitable teams in the league, and everyone knows it.  If Katz did move the Oilers, we wouldn't be without a team for long, because some other owner would just pack up from the US and move here.  The 80s were a long time ago, and the amount of people who watched the glory teams personally is dwindling every year, so you can't coast on that forever.  We know this, but neither Lowe nor Adler seems to.  Not to mention every balance sheet, whether personal or company, has a breaking point where they just say no more, this is out of our price range.  Even those who don't buy tickets still buy merchandise and watch the games on TV, creating revenue for the team that way.   

Have you seen Oiler's ticket prices lately?  A seat in the nosebleeds costs $50, a single ticket in the best seats in the house costs almost $300.  With season tickets, the differential is huge.  For the privilege of standing in 1 place for 3 hours to watch the game, you have to pay over $1200.  Don't want to take a chance you get assigned a seat in front of a pillar where you can't actually see the game except on the Jumbotron?  That's an extra $700, now you're up to $1900.  The seats next to the ice cost over $6,700.  My uncle used to take his daughter and some of my family as well as cousins to an Oilers' game every year because that's what she requested as her birthday present, but we haven't done that for years because he hasn't been able to afford to do that for years, what with ticket prices being what they are now.      

This is called taking the fans for granted, whether they go to the games or not, and it's completely unacceptable from management. 

In this new media world, will all those social media networks, the Oilers have been doing their utmost to keep their fans informed. But there are matters where their lips have to remain sealed. Such as when they are working on a trade or trying to lure a free agent. Alas, that’s where the most misinformation (and disinformation) happens. Get this or that player, trade away this or that player. Fuelled often by irresponsible rumours, created frequently by those same media that need to fill their quota of white sheets of paper or dead air, these sentiments spread faster than forest fires.

Fine, Adler, but this is not something that's unique to Edmonton.  Maybe you should read a non-Oilers sports story or blog once in awhile. 

But then again, as the saying goes, show me someone who’s never made any mistakes, and you’re showing me someone who’s never done anything but spent their lives resting, twiddling their thumbs and watching their stomachs to see when the sainted glow will appear.

Newsflash, genius, no one expects the team to go 82-0 and beat every team in the playoffs 4-0 in every series to hoist the cup, they just want the Oilers to win enough to get themselves into the playoffs, then win enough to get the cup.  It's done every year by other clubs, no reason the Oilers can't do it at some point, either. 

A journalist’s job is to inform as fully and as truthfully as possible. That’s tough enough in and of itself. Are they doing it? A rhetorical question, if there ever was one.

No, moron, it's not rhetorical.  Journalists for the Oilers, up until Mackinnon's question at the press conference, tended to write fluff pieces and write a lot without actually saying something.  But as I already stated, their customers are Oilers' customers too, and they get tired of journalists not asking the tough questions as much as Oilers' management not having to answer them.  And they face the same consequences for that:  loss of revenue.  Give the people what they want, and the money keeps flowing. 

Now, poor Kevin Lowe has got to come out and apologize for telling the truth, uncomfortable as it is. And our sports media, social psychologists one and all, have a new topic: analyzing whether the apology on the Oilers’ web site was enough. One assumes they’d rather have Lowe driving around, visiting each and every fan, apologizing to each and every one of them in person and delivering personalized chocolate bars shaped like hockey sticks, to boot. Would THAT silence them? I guess not. He should have found out who of the fans is allergic to chocolate and deliver hockey puck-shaped cookies to them, instead.

WOW….this is probably the most patronizing and insulting part of the entire article.  I know you're being facetious and using hyperbole, but this crosses the line.  What the team sees as truth is often different than what the paying customers (ie FANS) see as truth.  Kevin Lowe's truth is different than what the fan's truth is.  Your mugshot is that of a white haired guy, I would assume you're old enough to have learned that by now.  If not, you are truly an ignorant and clueless media hack for the Oilers – the hack of all hacks. 

Instead of writing, Adler, perhaps it's time for you to go back down to your mother's basement and read a book in your underwear, like Jay Feaster says all bloggers do.  I don't want to read this kind of verbal diarrhea from you ever again. 

So what should a team do when the leaders are struggling?  Look at the guys who are doing the right things.  Right now, I'd look at Yakupov.  Why?  Not the scoring.  I'd look at what he isn't doing, which is not running around trying to be a one man show.  Give the kid credit, it's in his DNA to try to take over a game with his speed and skill and he has listened to his coaches and worked on his all round game – not always with glowing defensive results – but his effort has been honest.  He's made more than a few nice hits, he's skated hard, he's gone to the net, he's camped out in his money spot five feet off the post and he's been rewarded with some nice production in a stretch when the team has been God awful.

Look at Dooby.  He has been extremely solid this year, very seldom getting himself into trouble trying too hard.  A player who over commits looks a little silly most of the time, but a six foot five gangly goalie who over commits looks like he shouldn't even be in the NHL.  Dooby has not once this season looked like he didn't belong in the NHL.  Yeah, he's made mistakes and had a couple of off nights, but every player makes mistakes and has an off night.  Dooby has bounced back strong by trying a little less hard, being smarter and doing the right things when he's faced adversity.  That's a leader.

As for the head office, we can all see Kevin Lowe is showing the strain of sitting on top of an organization that has not delivered up to the fans expectations.  I'm not going to dwell on his comments because I've been known to put my foot in my mouth in the heat of battle.  Whether or not he's the man for the job is up to the Mr. Katz, a man equally afflicted with foot in mouth disease, so I expect Kev will be around for a little while longer.

For the record, I give Lowe a ton of credit for the last run to the cup because I remember Rollie the goalie, who would not have been here without K-Lowe, and would have won us the cup if he hadn't gotten run over.  That was a well assembled, well coached, totally committed group.  Who could forget the shock and awe of the Oilers playing the trap to eliminate Detroit in the first round.  MacT is the new GM folks, and he's a sly bastard.

As for the charges of nepotism, fair enough, but MacT could be a great choice for GM.  Why?  He knows what it takes to win as a player, he knows how to use/coach players, he knows how to motivate players and he's a fiery competitor who will not accept losing.  He's proven himself to be a sharp customer and I predict he will be a good GM.  We'll see pretty quickly whether the problems Tambi faced were supply related or down to poor strategy.  We all know that the players the Oilers need are not going to be easy to acquire.

Go get'em MacT!

The following quote is courtesy of an excellent article here (http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/04/15/john-mackinnon-puts-kevin-lowe-on-the-hot-seat/).  I must say that if mainstream reporters aggressively asked the questions that people want answered like MacKinnon does here, they wouldn't need to worry about bloggers stealing their jobs.  I must also say that if MacKinnon keeps the aggressive questions coming he's going to be reduced to blogging cause the Oilers will cut off his access to the team and the players.  That's how they roll.  Anyways, the quote:

"Really I am a conduit to our owner, Daryl Katz, and the GM is the GM and the focal point of our hockey team." – Kevin Lowe, on his role with the Oilers

What this means to me is that Daryl Katz is a busy man and a business man with places to be and people to see and he can't be in all the places he wants to be at the same time.  So Daryl Katz pays a man he (I infer) trusts, likes and respects to act as his eyes, ears and voice for this project because while it is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, it is still only one side project for Katz.

This actually makes a very great deal of sense to me and really clarifies the entire management situation to me.

INFERRED CHAIN OF COMMAND

(Katz)Lowe—>MacT—>Howson—->Krueger

Lowe acts as Katz' representative and is less "in charge" and more "in stewardship".  He will not make hockey decisions for MacT but will work to relay information back and forth and see to it that Katz' interests are attended to without hampering daily operations of the club.  When MacT makes a big decision he will tell it to Lowe who will tell it to Katz who will very likely green-light it.

MacT is the GM, Howson is a friend of everyone involved which means of course he gets a job somewhere doing something cause that's how we roll in Edmonton, Krueger is next year's Fall Guy.  Gotcha.

Also, this is all speculation on my part based on a single, one-sentance quote.  Let me know if you think I'm on the money!
 

Taylor Hall reminds me of the days of Jason Maas of our Edmonton Eskimos patrolling the bench, fired up and trying to light a fire under everyone when the Esks were about to lose a game.  It usually worked. 

2 key quotes stand out to me from this article: 

“I am very frustrated. It’s been three years now,” said the emotional winger. “I think we’ve learned that it just gets harder as every game goes on, especially in a shortened season. The level goes up two, three per cent every game and what you brought two weeks ago isn’t good enough now." – Taylor Hall

Now taking your lumps losing is part of both your growth as a player and your growth as a rebuilding team.  Without the disappointment of losing, you won't appreciate the victory.  But, it's good to see Hall this hungry to succeed.  It's also a tell to MacT:  if he can't turn things around in the next couple of seasons, Hall may be asking for a trade out of town, because his frustration will be reaching a boiling point.  

Being frustrated about losing is a good thing.  It's also very telling that Shawn Horcoff, Ryan Smyth, Ryan Jones, or Ales Hemsky have remained silent on the subject.  But that may just be circumstantial, or they may have actually refused to comment to the media.  No one knows which one for sure.    

Here's an even better one from Anton Lander, he of the out of the playoffs audition for a roster spot next year, and newcomer not to the team but to the current circumstances of the team: 

“This is embarrassing. After everything that happened yesterday (with the firing of general manager Steve Tambellini) then for us to come out and show up like this is not good enough.” – Anton Lander

He hit the nail on the head.  The team should've come to this one fired up, trying to prove something to their new GM because they're essentially playing for their jobs now, but they didn't.  Maybe an A will be on Lander's sweater in the future. 

If MacT is listening and reading between the lines (and at this point IMO we have no choice but to give him the benefit of the doubt that he is), then one of his top priorities this summer should be to get rid of the passengers and get some players on the roster.  The passengers in this case refer to the guys who have largely been passengers for most of the season:  Smyth, Hemsky, Jones, Horcoff, Schultz the elder, Ryan Whitney, Eric Belanger.  Ben Eager is already paying for his sins via banishment to OKC, as is Darcy Hordichuk. 

If only we had a time machine and could go back in time to the trade deadline now, things would be completely different….alas….*sigh*

One thing's for sure, a lot of people criticized MacT for his "MacT line blender" and while that was warranted we have to remember he didn't have the abundance of talent in the top 6 Krueger has now – he was probably forced to blend his lines more than anything because it was hugely lacking (moreso than it is now) in key areas…and hey, you have to put a roster together somehow, right? 

Anyway, to the meat and potatoes of what I'm going to say.  Here's what I expect MacT to do: 

1.  Compliance buyouts – Ryan Smyth and Shawn Horcoff

Khabby in the past would be the #1 candidate for this, however his contract is up July 1 anyway, so no harm done.  Smyth is past his prime, and is taking a roster spot away from Teemu Hartikainen.  He's been nothing more than subpar this season, so in this case where does he fit?  I can't see it.  If they can convince him to retire instead of buying him out, it would definitely be much less of a messy divorce.  Smytty says all the usual things a player in his situation says "I have plenty of gas left in the tank" and all that, but come on, who really believes that?  The guy has taken so much punishment over the years, it's pretty much inevitable that age catches up to him, like it did this season.  Even Gretzky slowed down with age, and if it happens to the greatest who ever played the game, it can happen to anyone.  Guys like Chris Chelios, Teemu Selanne, and Daniel Alfredsson are the exception rather than the rule.  If they can convince him to retire, maybe they can use the compliance buyout on someone else, maybe one of the 2 names in point 2 (which is coming, don't you worry). 

Horcoff's boxcars are OK, but not great.  6-4-10 in 24 games is nothing special, even for a 3rd line C.  Don't be fooled by his +4 rating – that was likely buoyed by playing with Nail Yakupov for large portions of the season as well as playing plum minutes as 1st line C while RNH was out with an injury.  He's also a key guy for faceoffs on this team, but he's not the only NHLer who's good at faceoffs.  He is replaceable.  Plus, unlike in years past there aren't any teams in danger is missing the cap floor, so even trading him is not an option anymore.     

MacT mentioned 2 things that are essential to this team moving forward:  a)  Making tough decisions and b) finding a greater mix of grit and skill in individual players – this means bottom 6 forwards who can score. 

Smyth and Horcoff would both be tough guys to say goodbye to, both players have been passionate Oilers for a long time, but if MacT is serious about turning the page and starting fresh as far as the veterans on this roster, then Smyth and Horcoff are the poster boys for the old guard, so they have to go. 

2.  Non-compliance buyouts – Eric Belanger and Ben Eager

Outside of faceoffs, Eric Belanger has been a disappointment ever since he came here.  Smyth and Horcoff are the more expensive players, so it makes sense to use the 2 non-compliance buyouts on them.  Sure, we have to buy him out at 2/3rds of his contract, but do you really want to see Eric Belanger suit up for the Oilers again?  I sure don't. 

Ben Eager was demoted to OKC for a reason – he's also failed to perform his role since coming to Edmonton.  Might as well rid ourselves of his roster spot. 

Buying out these 2 players will cost the Oilers $1.216 million in cap space next year and $816K in cap space in 2015, but it's better than paying them a combined $2.85 million cap hit to play in the minors or sit out next year, waiting for time to tick down on their contracts.  The buyout is the lesser of 2 evils in this case. 

3.  Hemsky gets traded at the draft table

Another of the old guard whose time has come and gone, Hemsky has played injured but also seems to be disinterested.  This combination means that his boxcars are the lowest in terms of points per game than they have been since his rookie season.  It's time to turn the page on this guy. 

I would bet one of the 1st things MacT does is get in touch with other GMs and shop him around, finding out who will give him what for him.  My guess is he gets packaged for a warm body and a low end draft pick, maybe even with a prospect or higher end draft pick thrown in. 

His replacement is already on the roster in Nail Yakupov and it doesn't make sense from an asset management POV to have 3 top 6 capable RWers on the roster.  I'd say the front runner at this point is Boston – they've got Krejci who Hemsky has chemistry with and plenty of good bottom 6 guys and d-men for the Oilers to choose from, and I would bet they throw in a bottom end draft pick as well – heck maybe we could even pry their 1st rounder out of them this year. 

4.  Nick Schultz gets traded before next season

He did so well after coming here at the trade deadline for Tom Gilbert last year, but this year the wheels fell off.  His cap hit could be better spent elsewhere.  If it's any consolation, Tom Gilbert has underperformed in Minnesota this year as well. 

This trade was a wash for both clubs.  Both Gilbert and Schultz will likely have new addresses by next year. 

5.  Prevent a 3 headed monster at center, one way or another

If the Oilers 1st round pick at this year's draft is high enough, the Oilers could get an 18-20 yr old NHL-ready center with size.  This will force MacT's hand with Sam Gagner, and he'll be shipped out.  Or, if the center is not NHL ready, Gagner will be re-signed, or if they draft a player from another position….well that's obvious.  One way or another, it's a good possibility the Oilers will have a surplus of centers as soon as this summer or within the next couple of years.   

6.  Find a better 3rd line, bringing in at least 1 guy in free agency on July 1

There's a good possibility that all 3 of Smyth, Horcoff, and Jones could be gone for the Oilers, so MacT will need to fill out that line.  If Lander's ready, he could be on this line, and I'd say Hartikainen has likely made the team as well on this line.  That means 1 position for sure from outside the organization to be filled, and there's no shortage of guys to choose from in free agency. 

7.  Find a younger backup goalie who can challenge Dubnyk for icetime

The free agent crop this year isn't that great…maybe we should put in a call to TB and see what they'd want in trade for Ben Bishop. 

If a 1A type of guy isn't available, then as a more conventional backup Niklas Backstrom and Tim Thomas are intriguing names, Ray Emery or Mike Smith might benefit from a change of scenery as well.

Of course, maybe even Yann Danis is ready to take that spot next year as well.   

I'm actually hoping Khabby doesn't get re-signed, even at traditional backup rates, although that is the prevailing rumor going around.  Yikes. 

8.  Upgrade the 4th line, if possible, give or take a center or 2

Smithson is OK as a 4th line C, but I don't think he fits MacT's mold as he's had absolutely no points since he got here.  I'd say that gets addressed via free agency.  Maybe Lander could take this spot.  Petrell and Brown could both get re-signed or upgraded.  Both guys have done pretty good at establishing themselves as Oilers this year, but their roster spots could probably use a more offensive upgrade if MacT can find the guys. 

9.  Retool the D

I've heard a rumour that MacT doesn't like Smid for some reason and he'll be traded…..I hope that rumour isn't true.  Nick Schultz is easily the most expendable guy, Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry are staying.  Petry, IMO, will rebound next year with more games to play, and Justin Schultz will is too good not to follow up with an improved encore next season. 

Please, oh please, don't re-sign Peckham, and Whitney has been one of the biggest problems on the team this year.  Can't see him coming back.  Mark Fistric has done well in limited ice time, but is still replaceable….50-50 whether he comes back or not.  Potter is likely re-signed for depth.   

If a new top 4 d-man comes back this is likely the warm body that comes back in a Hemsky or Gagner trade.

You've talked the talk, MacT.  Now let's see if you practice what you preach and walk  the walk. 

Plus…

I love the fact that John Mackinnon asked Lowe a tough question at the press conference yesterday.  Perhaps mainstream media writers are finally realizing that they're not gaining readers by being mouthpieces and drivel shovelers for the team.  Or, maybe they take the perspective of most fans, they're as sick and tired of losing as the rest of us and have run out of patience of the boys at the top.  Either way, it was a breath of fresh air to see the media holding the team accountable now. 

And…

I also thought Lowe's response to Mackinnon's question was rich.  He won all his Stanleys as a player, doing it as a manager requires a completely different skillset.